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Institute
- Fachbereich Energietechnik (552) (remove)
Quantifying and minimizing uncertainty is vital for simulating technically and economically successful geothermal reservoirs. To this end, we apply a stochastic modelling sequence, a Monte Carlo study, based on (i) creating an ensemble of possible realizations of a reservoir model, (ii) forward simulation of fluid flow and heat transport, and (iii) constraining post-processing using observed state variables. To generate the ensemble, we use the stochastic algorithm of Sequential Gaussian Simulation and test its potential fitting rock properties, such as thermal conductivity and permeability, of a synthetic reference model and—performing a corresponding forward simulation—state variables such as temperature. The ensemble yields probability distributions of rock properties and state variables at any location inside the reservoir. In addition, we perform a constraining post-processing in order to minimize the uncertainty of the obtained distributions by conditioning the ensemble to observed state variables, in this case temperature. This constraining post-processing works particularly well on systems dominated by fluid flow. The stochastic modelling sequence is applied to a large, steady-state 3-D heat flow model of a reservoir in The Hague, Netherlands. The spatial thermal conductivity distribution is simulated stochastically based on available logging data. Errors of bottom-hole temperatures provide thresholds for the constraining technique performed afterwards. This reduce the temperature uncertainty for the proposed target location significantly from 25 to 12 K (full distribution width) in a depth of 2300 m. Assuming a Gaussian shape of the temperature distribution, the standard deviation is 1.8 K. To allow a more comprehensive approach to quantify uncertainty, we also implement the stochastic simulation of boundary conditions and demonstrate this for the basal specific heat flow in the reservoir of The Hague. As expected, this results in a larger distribution width and hence, a larger, but more realistic uncertainty estimate. However, applying the constraining post-processing the uncertainty is again reduced to the level of the post-processing without stochastic boundary simulation. Thus, constraining post-processing is a suitable tool for reducing uncertainty estimates by observed state variables.
Seismic vulnerability estimation of existing structures is unquestionably interesting topic of high priority, particularly after earthquake events. Having in mind the vast number of old masonry buildings in North Macedonia serving as public institutions, it is evident that the structural assessment of these buildings is an issue of great importance. In this paper, a comprehensive methodology for the development of seismic fragility curves of existing masonry buildings is presented. A scenario – based method that incorporates the knowledge of the tectonic style of the considered region, the active fault characterization, the earth crust model and the historical seismicity (determined via the Neo Deterministic approach) is used for calculation of the necessary response spectra. The capacity of the investigated masonry buildings has been determined by using nonlinear static analysis. MINEA software (SDA Engineering) is used for verification of the structural safety of the structures Performance point, obtained from the intersection of the capacity of the building and the spectra used, is selected as a response parameter. The thresholds of the spectral displacement are obtained by splitting the capacity curve into five parts, utilizing empirical formulas which are represented as a function of yield displacement and ultimate displacement. As a result, four levels of damage limit states are determined. A maximum likelihood estimation procedure for the process of fragility curves determination is noted as a final step in the proposed procedure. As a result, region specific series of vulnerability curves for structures are defined.
The investigation of atomic resonance fluorescence has always been of special interest as a means for the determination of atomic parameters. In addition, information on the interaction mechanism between atoms and radiation can be obtained. In the standard fluorescence experiment the frequency distribution of the incident photons is larger than the natural width of the respective transition; as a consequence the correlation time in the photon-atom interaction is determined by the lifetime of the atoms in the excited state. With the development of lasers and especially of tunable dye lasers in recent years it became possible to study the case where the incident radiation has a spectral distribution which is narrower than the natural width. This corresponds to a correlation time of the incoming light wave which is much longer than the excited-state lifetime. In this chapter a survey of experiments on the resonance fluorescence of atoms in monochromatic laser fields will be given.
Large scale central receiver systems typically deploy between thousands to more than a hundred thousand heliostats. During solar operation, each heliostat is aligned individually in such a way that the overall surface normal bisects the angle between the sun’s position and the aim point coordinate on the receiver. Due to various tracking error sources, achieving accurate alignment ≤1 mrad for all the heliostats with respect to the aim points on the receiver without a calibration system can be regarded as unrealistic. Therefore, a calibration system is necessary not only to improve the aiming accuracy for achieving desired flux distributions but also to reduce or eliminate spillage. An overview of current larger-scale central receiver systems (CRS), tracking error sources and the basic requirements of an ideal calibration system is presented. Leading up to the main topic, a description of general and specific terms on the topics heliostat calibration and tracking control clarifies the terminology used in this work. Various figures illustrate the signal flows along various typical components as well as the corresponding monitoring or measuring devices that indicate or measure along the signal (or effect) chain. The numerous calibration systems are described in detail and classified in groups. Two tables allow the juxtaposition of the calibration methods for a better comparison. In an assessment, the advantages and disadvantages of individual calibration methods are presented.
Risk management for structures with a risk of explosion should be considered very carefully when performing a risk analysis according to IEC 62305-2. In contrast to the 2006 edition of the standard, the 2010 edition describes the topic “Structures with a risk of explosion” in more detail. Moreover, in Germany separate procedures and parameters are defined for the risk analysis of structures with a risk of explosion (Supplement 3 of the German DIN EN 62305-2 standard). This paper describes the contents and the relevant calculations of this Supplement 3, together with a numerical example.