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This work presents a basic forecast tool for predicting direct normal irradiance (DNI) in hourly resolution, which the Solar-Institut Jülich (SIJ) is developing within a research project. The DNI forecast data shall be used for a parabolic trough collector (PTC) system with a concrete thermal energy storage (C-TES) located at the company KEAN Soft Drinks Ltd in Limassol, Cyprus. On a daily basis, 24-hour DNI prediction data in hourly resolution shall be automatically produced using free or very low-cost weather forecast data as input. The purpose of the DNI forecast tool is to automatically transfer the DNI forecast data on a daily basis to a main control unit (MCU). The MCU automatically makes a smart decision on the operation mode of the PTC system such as steam production mode and/or C-TES charging mode. The DNI forecast tool was evaluated using historical data of measured DNI from an on-site weather station, which was compared to the DNI forecast data. The DNI forecast tool was tested using data from 56 days between January and March 2022, which included days with a strong variation in DNI due to cloud passages. For the evaluation of the DNI forecast reliability, three categories were created and the forecast data was sorted accordingly. The result was that the DNI forecast tool has a reliability of 71.4 % based on the tested days. The result fulfils SIJ’s aim to achieve a reliability of around 70 %, but SIJ aims to still improve the DNI forecast quality.
Does stiffer electoral competition reduce political shirking? For a micro-analysis of this question, I construct a new data set spanning the years 2005 to 2012 covering biographical and political information about German Members of Parliament (MPs), including their attendance rates in voting sessions. For the parliament elected in 2009, I show that indeed opposition party MPs who expect to face a close race in their district show significantly and relevantly lower absence rates in parliament beforehand. MPs of governing parties seem not to react significantly to electoral competition. These results are confirmed by an analysis of the parliament elected in 2005, by several robustness checks, and also by employing an instrumental variable strategy exploiting convenient peculiarities of the German electoral system. The study also shows how MPs elected via party lists react to different levels of electoral competition.
Purpose Vascular risk factors and ocular perfusion are heatedly discussed in the pathogenesis of glaucoma. The retinal vessel analyzer (RVA, IMEDOS Systems, Germany) allows noninvasive measurement of retinal vessel regulation. Significant differences especially in the veins between healthy subjects and patients suffering from glaucoma were previously reported. In this pilot-study we investigated if localized vascular regulation is altered in glaucoma patients with altitudinal visual field defect asymmetry. Methods 15 eyes of 12 glaucoma patients with advanced altitudinal visual field defect asymmetry were included. The mean defect was calculated for each hemisphere separately (-20.99 ± 10.49 pro- found hemispheric visual field defect vs -7.36 ± 3.97 dB less profound hemisphere). After pupil dilation, RVA measurements of retinal arteries and veins were conducted using the standard protocol. The superior and inferior retinal vessel reactivity were measured consecutively in each eye. Results Significant differences were recorded in venous vessel constriction after flicker light stimulation and overall amplitude of the reaction (p \ 0.04 and p \ 0.02 respectively) in-between the hemispheres spheres. Vessel reaction was higher in the hemisphere corresponding to the more advanced visual field defect. Arterial diameters reacted similarly, failing to reach statistical significance. Conclusion Localized retinal vessel regulation is significantly altered in glaucoma patients with asymmetri altitudinal visual field defects. Veins supplying the hemisphere concordant to a less profound visual field defect show diminished diameter changes. Vascular dysregulation might be particularly important in early glaucoma stages prior to a significant visual field defect.
Purpose: It was demonstrated previously that retinal pulse wave velocity (rPWV) as a measure of retinal arterial stiffness is increased in aged anamnestically healthy volunteers compared with young healthy subjects. Using novel methodology of rPWV assessment this finding was confirmed and investigated whether it might relate to the increased blood pressure usually accompanying the aging process, rather than to the aging itself.
Methods: A total of 12 young 25.5-year-old (24.0–28.8) [median(1st quartile–3rd quartile)] and 12 senior 68.5-year-old (63.8–71.8) anamnestically healthy volunteers; and 12 senior 63.0-year-old (60.8–65.0) validated healthy volunteers and 12 young 33.0-year-old (29.5–35.0) hypertensive patients were examined. Time-dependent alterations of vessel diameter were assessed by the Dynamic Vessel Analyzer in a retinal artery of each subject. The data were filtered and processed using mathematical signal analysis and rPWVs were calculated.
Results: rPWV amounted to 1200 (990-1470) RU (relative units)/s in the hypertensive group and to 1040 (700-2230) RU/s in anamnestically healthy seniors. These differed significantly from rPWVs in young healthy group (410 [280–500] RU/s) and in validated healthy seniors (400 [320–510] RU/s). rPWV associated with age and mean arterial pressure (MAP) in the pooled cohort excluded validated healthy seniors. In a regression model these associations remain when alternately adjusted for MAP and age. When including validated healthy seniors in the pooled cohort only association with MAP remains.
Conclusions: Both aging (with not excluded cardiovascular risk factors) and mild hypertension are associated with elevated rPWV. rPWV increases to a similar extent both in young mildly hypertensive subjects and in aged anamnestically healthy persons. Healthy aging is not associated with increased rPWV.
The telecommunications industry is currently going through a major transformation. In this context, the enhanced Telecom Operations Map (eTOM) is a domain-specific process reference model that is offered by the industry organization TM Forum. In practice, eTOM is well accepted and confirmed as de facto standard. It provides process definitions and process flows on different levels of detail. This article discusses the reference modeling of eTOM, i.e., the design, the resulting artifact, and its evaluation based on three project cases. The application of eTOM in three projects illustrates the design approach and concrete models on strategic and operational levels. The article follows the Design Science Research (DSR) paradigm. It contributes with concrete design artifacts to the transformational needs of the telecommunications industry and offers lessons-learned from a general DSR perspective.
While plate fixation of proximal ulna fractures might lead to superior clinical results compared to tension band wiring, regular plates represent an established risk factor for wound complications. The olecranon double plates (Medartis, Basel, CH) might decrease complications related to the osteosynthesis because of their low profile and better anatomical fit. This study aimed to evaluate the biomechanical performance and clinical results of the olecranon double plates.
In our case the double-side-method is used to minimize the complexity of a matrix-readout. Here the number of channels is reduced to 2√N̅. It is also possible to benefit from the method in a single pixel readout system. One signal can be used to measure position and energy of the event, the other one can be applied to a fast trigger-circuit at the same time. In a next step we will investigate timing behavior and electrical crosstalk of the circuit.
An increasing number of studies have reported on forest declines and vegetation shifts triggered by drought. In the Swiss Rhone valley (Valais), one of the driest inner-Alpine regions, the species composition in low elevation forests is changing: The sub-boreal Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) dominating the dry forests is showing high mortality rates. Concurrently the sub-Mediterranean pubescent oak (Quercus pubescens Willd.) has locally increased in abundance. However, it remains unclear whether this local change in species composition is part of a larger-scale vegetation shift. To study variability in mortality and regeneration in these dry forests we analysed data from the Swiss national forest inventory (NFI) on a regular grid between 1983 and 2003, and combined it with annual mortality data from a monitoring site. Pine mortality was found to be highest at low elevation (below 1000 m a.s.l.). Annual variation in pine mortality was correlated with a drought index computed for the summer months prior to observed tree death. A generalized linear mixed-effects model indicated for the NFI data increased pine mortality on dryer sites with high stand competition, particularly for small-diameter trees. Pine regeneration was low in comparison to its occurrence in the overstorey, whereas oak regeneration was comparably abundant. Although both species regenerated well at dry sites, pine regeneration was favoured at cooler sites at higher altitude and oak regeneration was more frequent at warmer sites, indicating a higher adaptation potential of oaks under future warming. Our results thus suggest that an extended shift in species composition is actually occurring in the pine forests in the Valais. The main driving factors are found to be climatic variability, particularly drought, and variability in stand structure and topography. Thus, pine forests at low elevations are developing into oak forests with unknown consequences for these ecosystems and their goods and services.