Article
Refine
Year of publication
Institute
- Fachbereich Energietechnik (598) (remove)
Has Fulltext
- no (598) (remove)
Language
- English (355)
- German (241)
- Multiple languages (1)
- Dutch (1)
Document Type
- Article (598) (remove)
Keywords
- Earthquake (4)
- Antibias (1)
- Artificial intelligence (1)
- BIM (1)
- Basisisolierung (1)
- Bauwerksüberwachung (1)
- Behaviour factor q (1)
- Bemessung (1)
- Cardiovascular MRI (1)
- Civil engineering (1)
Quantifying and minimizing uncertainty is vital for simulating technically and economically successful geothermal reservoirs. To this end, we apply a stochastic modelling sequence, a Monte Carlo study, based on (i) creating an ensemble of possible realizations of a reservoir model, (ii) forward simulation of fluid flow and heat transport, and (iii) constraining post-processing using observed state variables. To generate the ensemble, we use the stochastic algorithm of Sequential Gaussian Simulation and test its potential fitting rock properties, such as thermal conductivity and permeability, of a synthetic reference model and—performing a corresponding forward simulation—state variables such as temperature. The ensemble yields probability distributions of rock properties and state variables at any location inside the reservoir. In addition, we perform a constraining post-processing in order to minimize the uncertainty of the obtained distributions by conditioning the ensemble to observed state variables, in this case temperature. This constraining post-processing works particularly well on systems dominated by fluid flow. The stochastic modelling sequence is applied to a large, steady-state 3-D heat flow model of a reservoir in The Hague, Netherlands. The spatial thermal conductivity distribution is simulated stochastically based on available logging data. Errors of bottom-hole temperatures provide thresholds for the constraining technique performed afterwards. This reduce the temperature uncertainty for the proposed target location significantly from 25 to 12 K (full distribution width) in a depth of 2300 m. Assuming a Gaussian shape of the temperature distribution, the standard deviation is 1.8 K. To allow a more comprehensive approach to quantify uncertainty, we also implement the stochastic simulation of boundary conditions and demonstrate this for the basal specific heat flow in the reservoir of The Hague. As expected, this results in a larger distribution width and hence, a larger, but more realistic uncertainty estimate. However, applying the constraining post-processing the uncertainty is again reduced to the level of the post-processing without stochastic boundary simulation. Thus, constraining post-processing is a suitable tool for reducing uncertainty estimates by observed state variables.
Pseudo-dynamische Versuche an Reihenmittelhäusern – Vergleich mit aktuellen Berechnungsansätzen
(2008)
Experimental determination of the cross sections of proton capture on radioactive nuclei is extremely difficult. Therefore, it is of substantial interest for the understanding of the production of the p-nuclei. For the first time, a direct measurement of proton-capture cross sections on stored, radioactive ions became possible in an energy range of interest for nuclear astrophysics. The experiment was performed at the Experimental Storage Ring (ESR) at GSI by making use of a sensitive method to measure (p,γ) and (p,n) reactions in inverse kinematics. These reaction channels are of high relevance for the nucleosyn-thesis processes in supernovae, which are among the most violent explosions in the universe and are not yet well understood. The cross section of the ¹¹⁸Te(p,γ) reaction has been measured at energies of 6 MeV/u and 7 MeV/u. The heavy ions interacted with a hydrogen gas jet target. The radiative recombination process of the fully stripped ¹¹⁸Te ions and electrons from the hydrogen target was used as a luminosity monitor. An overview of the experimental method and preliminary results from the ongoing analysis will be presented.