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Determinants of earnings forecast error, earnings forecast revision and earnings forecast accuracy
(2012)
Earnings forecasts are ubiquitous in today’s financial markets. They are essential indicators of future firm performance and a starting point for firm valuation. Extremely inaccurate and overoptimistic forecasts during the most recent financial crisis have raised serious doubts regarding the reliability of such forecasts. This thesis therefore investigates new determinants of forecast errors and accuracy. In addition, new determinants of forecast revisions are examined. More specifically, the thesis answers the following questions: 1) How do analyst incentives lead to forecast errors? 2) How do changes in analyst incentives lead to forecast revisions?, and 3) What factors drive differences in forecast accuracy?
s the magnetic field strength and therefore the operational frequency in MRI are increased, the radiofrequency wavelength approaches the size of the human head/body, resulting in wave effects which cause signal decreases and dropouts. Especially, whole-body imaging at 7 T and higher is therefore challenging. Recently, an acquisition scheme called time-interleaved acquisition of modes has been proposed to tackle the inhomogeneity problems in high-field MRI. The basic premise is to excite two (or more) different Burn:x-wiley:07403194:media:MRM23081:tex2gif-stack-1 modes using static radiofrequency shimming in an interleaved acquisition, where the complementary radiofrequency patterns of the two modes can be exploited to improve overall signal homogeneity. In this work, the impact of time-interleaved acquisition of mode on image contrast as well as on time-averaged specific absorption rate is addressed in detail. Time-interleaved acquisition of mode is superior in Burn:x-wiley:07403194:media:MRM23081:tex2gif-stack-2 homogeneity compared with conventional radiofrequency shimming while being highly specific absorption rate efficient. Time-interleaved acquisition of modes can enable almost homogeneous high-field imaging throughout the entire field of view in PD, T2, and T2*-weighted imaging and, if a specified homogeneity criterion is met, in T1-weighted imaging as well.
31P MR spectroscopic imaging of the human prostate provides information about phosphorylated metabolites that could be used for prostate cancer characterization. The sensitivity of a magnetic field strength of 7 T might enable 3D 31P MR spectroscopic imaging with relevant spatial resolution in a clinically acceptable measurement time. To this end, a 31P endorectal coil was developed and combined with an eight-channel 1H body-array coil to relate metabolic information to anatomical location. An extensive safety validation was performed to evaluate the specific absorption rate, the radiofrequency field distribution, and the temperature distribution of both coils. This validation consisted of detailed Finite Integration Technique simulations, confirmed by MR thermometry and Burn:x-wiley:07403194:media:MRM24175:tex2gif-stack-1 measurements in a phantom and in vivo temperature measurements. The safety studies demonstrated that the presence of the 31P endorectal coil had no influence on the specific absorption rate levels and temperature distribution of the external eight-channel 1H array coil. To stay within a 10 g averaged local specific absorption rate of 10 W/kg, a maximum time-averaged input power of 33 W for the 1H array coil was allowed. For transmitting with the 31P endorectal coil, our safety limit of less than 1°C temperature increase in vivo during a 15-min MR spectroscopic imaging experiment was reached at a time-averaged input power of 1.9 W. With this power setting, a second in vivo measurement was performed on a healthy volunteer. Using adiabatic excitation, 3D 31P MR spectroscopic imaging produced spectra from the entire prostate in 18 min with a spatial resolution of 4 cm3. The spectral resolution enabled the separate detection of phosphocholine, phosphoethanolamine, inorganic phosphate, and other metabolites that could play an important role in the characterization of prostate cancer.
This contribution discusses the utilization of RF power in an MRI system with RF mode shimming which enables the superposition of circularly polarized modes of a transmit RF coil array driven by a Butler matrix. Since the required power for the individual modes can vary widely, mode-shimming can result in a significant underutilization of the total available RF power. A variable power combiner (VPC) is proposed to improve the power utilization: it can be realized as a reconfiguration of the MRI transmit system by the inclusion of one additional matrix network which receives the power from all transmit amplifiers at its input ports and provides any desired (combined) power distribution at its output ports by controlling the phase and amplitude of the amplifiers’ input signals. The power distribution at the output ports of the VPC is then fed into the “mode” ports of the coil array Butler matrix in order to superimpose the spatial modes at the highest achievable power utilization. The VPC configuration is compared to the standard configuration of the transmit chain of our MRI system with 8 transmit channels and 16 coils. In realistic scenarios, improved power utilization was achieved from 17% to 60% and from 14% to 55% for an elliptical phantom and a region of interest in the abdomen, respectively, and an increase of the power utilization of 1 dB for a region of interest in the upper leg. In general, it is found that the VPC allows significant improvement in power utilization when the shimming solution demands only a few modes to be energized, while the technique can yield loss in power utilization in cases with many modes required at high power level.
Prioritization is an essential task within requirements engineering to cope with complexity and to establish focus properly. The 3rd Workshop on Requirements Prioritization for customer oriented Software Development (RePriCo’12) focused on requirements prioritization and adjacent themes in the context of customer oriented development of bespoke and standard software. Five submissions have been accepted for the proceedings and for presentation. The report summarizes and points out key findings.
Thema
06 Alles ist jetzt | Zeit ist für uns allgegenwärtig, sie bestimmt unser Leben. Eine kurze Reise in die Geschichte der Zeit.
10 Raumfahrt-Visionen von einst und heute | 25. Raumfahrtkolloquium des Fachbereichs Luft- und Raumfahrttechnik
12 Aufbruch in eine neue Welt | Essay von Prof. Dr. h.c. Jesco Freiherr von Puttkamer zum 100. Geburtstag von Wernher von Braun
16 Gesucht: Ein Impfstoff gegen Krebs | Prof. Dr. Peter Öhlschläger forscht an Impfstoffen, die die Ausbreitung von Krebs bekämpfen sollen
18 Gesichter der Zukunft | An der FH kommen menschenähnliche Roboter zum Einsatz, die sogar Fußball spielen können
20 Sicher in der Luft | FH Aachen entwickelt mit der Sinn Spezialuhren GmbH technischen Standard für Fliegeruhren
24 Der „Eismaulwurf“ gräbt sich durch die Schweiz | IceMole soll bei der Untersuchung von unterirdischen Gletscherseen helfen Studium
26 Benzin im Blut | Über die Arbeit im Aixtreme-Racing-Team hat Michael Roeske den Weg zu BMW Motorsport gefunden
28 Hervorragende Perspektiven | Duale Studiengänge in Kooperation mit der Handwerkskammer
30 Frei wie ein Vogel | 24 Studierende lernen die Grundlagen des Segelfliegens kennen
32 Vom Autowäscher zum Ingenieur | Karriere mit fünf Sternen
33 Miteinander arbeiten, praktisch überzeugen | Das Projekt pro8 fordert Teamfähigkeit, Zeitmanagement, Präsentationstechniken und Fachwissen
34 Willkommene Förderung | Studiengang Scientific Programming erhält Stiftungsprofessur
35 Von Zeltdächern und Strohhalmen | Wettbewerb zur Erweiterung des CHIO-Geländes
36 Mehr Bürgerbeteiligung in der Städteregion | FH-Studentinnen entwickeln gemeinsam mit Prof. Dr. Claudia Mayer das Konzept
37 Ferngesteuertes Labor | Studierende können jetzt von zu Hause aus an Antriebs- und Steuerungskomponenten arbeiten
38 Der Koloss von Jülich | Teilnehmer der 27. Summer School Renewable Energy besuchen den Solarturm in Jülich
40 Meldungen/Studium International
42 Fliegende Ingenieure | Studium Luft- und Raumfahrttechnik wird mit einer Ausbildung zum Verkehrspiloten verknüpft
44 Arbeitstagung Internationalisierung | Grenzüberschreitende Zusammenarbeit wird an der FH weiter ausgebaut
45 Meldungen/ International Benzin im Blut | Schon als Kind war Michael Roeske motorsportverrückt. Über die Arbeit im Aixtreme-RacingTeam hat er den Weg zu BMW Motorsport gefunden
FORSCHUNG UND TRANSFER
46 Der Hamster, der 1958 starb und Spürnase wurde | Der FH-Doktorand Ulrich Bohrn arbeitet mit lebenden Zellen
48 Leuchtende Weltneuheit | FH-Wissenschaftler entwickeln quecksilberfreie Energiesparlampe
50 Zellen erinnern sich | FH-Professor entdeckt neuen Effekt bei der Untersuchung roter Blutkörperchen
52 Provokation allein reicht nicht mehr | Prof. Dr. Sabine Fabo erforscht die Arbeit moderner Künstler
54 FH und LKA gemeinsam gegen Computerkriminalität | Neue Strategien zur Prävention und zur Strafverfolgung
55 Meldungen/Forschung und Transfer Personen
56 Der Tiger und sein Meister | Interview mit dem Aachener Künstler Eric Peters
60 Interessen vereinigen | Honorarkonsulin Prof. Dr. Christiane Vaeßen setzt sich für grenzüberschreitende Kooperation ein
61 Die zwei Seelen | FH-Absolventin Monika Koch hat sich in der Region etabliert
62 Die FH Aachen trauert um Prof. Dr. Rolf-Dietmar Grap
63 Ein Mann der ersten Stunde | Die FH Aachen trauert um Kanzler a. D. Peter Michael Reusch
64 Neue Dekane treten ihr Amt an | Sechs der zehn FH-Fachbereiche stehen unter neuer Leitung
65 Mitglieder des Senats und der Fachbereichsräte
68 Lehrpreis 2012, Lehrprämien 2011/12
69 Dienstjubiläen, Bücher /Neuauflagen
70 Neuberufene Professoren
71 Meldungen/Personen
SERVICE
72 Platz für 1000 Studierende | Neues Hörsaalgebäude in der Eupener Straße feierlich eröffnet
74 Der Blick geht nach vorn | FH peilt die Reauditierung als „familiengerechte Hochschule“ an
75 So schön kann Helfen sein | „Menschen für Menschen“- Botschafterin Sara Nuru zu Gast an der FH
76 Wie wärs mit MINT? | Die Wanderausstellung „Technik ist weiblich“ begeistert Mädchen für Naturwissenschaften
77 Preis für Technologietransfer | TeTRRA-Projekt zeichnet FH-Absolventen aus
78 Meldungen/Service, Messen und Veranstaltungen
86 Ortswechsel /Zeitreise per Rad
87 Impressum
Two of the main environmental problems of today’s society are the continuously increasing production of organic wastes as well as the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the related green house effect. A way to solve these problems is the production of biogas. Biogas is a combustible gas consisting of methane, carbon dioxide and small amounts of other gases and trace elements. Production of biogas through anaerobic digestion of animal manure and slurries as well as of a wide range of digestible organic wastes and agricultural residues, converts these substrates into electricity and heat and offers a natural fertiliser for agriculture. The microbiological process of decomposition of organic matter, in the absence of oxygen takes place in reactors, called digesters. Biogas can be used as a fuel in a gas turbine or burner and can be used in a hybrid solar tower system offering a solution for waste treatment of agricultural and animal residues. A solar tower system consists of a heliostat field, which concentrates direct solar irradiation on an open volumetric central receiver. The receiver heats up ambient air to temperatures of around 700°C. The hot air’s heat energy is transferred to a steam Rankine cycle in a heat recovery steam generator (HRSG). The steam drives a steam turbine, which in turn drives a generator for producing electricity. In order to increase the operational hours of a solar tower power plant, a heat storage system and/ or hybridization may be considered. The advantage of solar-fossil hybrid power plants, compared to solar-only systems, lies in low additional investment costs due to an adaptable solar share and reduced technical and economical risks. On sunny days the hybrid system operates in a solar-only mode with the central receiver and on cloudy days and at night with the gas turbine only. As an alternative to methane gas, environmentally neutral biogas can be used for operating the gas turbine. Hence, the hybrid system is operated to 100% from renewable energy sources
Thermodynamic stability, configurational motions and internal forces of haemoglobin (Hb) of three endotherms (platypus, Ornithorhynchus anatinus; domestic chicken, Gallus gallus domesticus and human, Homo sapiens) and an ectotherm (salt water crocodile, Crocodylus porosus) were investigated using circular dichroism, incoherent elastic neutron scattering and coarse-grained Brownian dynamics simulations. The experimental results from Hb solutions revealed a direct correlation between protein resilience, melting temperature and average body temperature of the different species on the 0.1 ns time scale. Molecular forces appeared to be adapted to permit conformational fluctuations with a root mean square displacement close to 1.2 Å at the corresponding average body temperature of the endotherms. Strong forces within crocodile Hb maintain the amplitudes of motion within a narrow limit over the entire temperature range in which the animal lives. In fully hydrated powder samples of human and chicken, Hb mean square displacements and effective force constants on the 1 ns time scale showed no differences over the whole temperature range from 10 to 300 K, in contrast to the solution case. A complementary result of the study, therefore, is that one hydration layer is not sufficient to activate all conformational fluctuations of Hb in the pico- to nanosecond time scale which might be relevant for biological function. Coarse-grained Brownian dynamics simulations permitted to explore residue-specific effects. They indicated that temperature sensing of human and chicken Hb occurs mainly at residues lining internal cavities in the β-subunits.
The ”IceMole“ is a novel maneuverable subsurface ice probe for clean in-situ analysis and sampling of subsurface ice and subglacial water/brine. It is developed and build at FH Aachen University of Applied Sciences’ Astronautical Laboratory. A first prototype was successfully tested on the Swiss Morteratsch glacier in 2010. Clean sampling is achieved with a hollow ice screw (as it is used in mountaineering) at the tip of the probe. Maneuverability is achieved with a differentially heated melting head. Funded by the German Space Agency (DLR), a consortium led by FH Aachen currently develops a much more advanced IceMole probe, which includes a sophisticated system for obstacle avoidance, target detection, and navigation in the ice. We intend to use this probe for taking clean samples of subglacial brine at the Blood Falls (McMurdo Dry Valleys, East Antarctica) for chemical and microbiological analysis. In our conference contribution, we 1) describe the IceMole design, 2) report the results of the field tests of the first prototype on the Morteratsch glacier, 3) discuss the probe’s potential for the clean in-situ analysis and sampling of subsurface ice and subglacial liquids, and 4) outline the way ahead in the development of this technology.
Bei der Ausarbeitung des nationalen Anwendungsdokumentes zur DIN EN 1998-1 waren die in der ENV-Fassung enthaltenen vereinfachten Regeln im Lichte aktueller Forschungsergebnisse zu überprüfen und zu überarbeiten. Die gleiche Aufgabe stellte sich auch für die Neufassung der DIN 4149. In beiden Fällen sind neben konstruktiven Regeln für die Art und Anordnung der zur Gebäudeaussteifung heranzuziehenden Wände im Grundriss Tabellen enthalten, die unter bestimmten Bedingungen den Entfall eines rechnerischen Nachweises der Tragwände im Erdbebenfall ermöglichen. Dies ist für Schwachbebengebiete, wie sie in Deutschland und anderen Ländern Mitteleuropas anzutreffen sind, sinnvoll, um unnötigen Rechenaufwand sowie Probleme mit der Führbarkeit von Nachweisen so weit wie möglich auszuschalten. Im vorliegenden Beitrag werden die Hintergründe der vereinfachten Regeln diskutiert und die Ergebnisse der Anwendung mit verschiedenen Rechenverfahren verglichen und bewertet.
Moderne Mauerwerksbauten müssen nach heutigen Anforderungen architektonisch, statisch, energetisch sowie schall- und brandschutztechnisch optimal ausgelegt sein. Aufgrund der Komplexität und engen Verzahnung der einzelnen Anforderungen ist eine integrale Gebäudeplanung zur Erzielung einer qualitativ hochwertigen Bauwerkslösung unbedingt notwendig. Diese erfordert von den Fachplanern vertieftes Spezialwissen in den verschiedenen Bereichen, um insbesondere die Schnittstellen und Bauwerksdetails korrekt zu planen und auszuführen. Der Beitrag stellt die integrale Gebäudeplanung am Beispiel eines Geschossbaus in Ziegelbauweise mit Lösungen für wesentliche Detailpunkte vor