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Quantifying and minimizing uncertainty is vital for simulating technically and economically successful geothermal reservoirs. To this end, we apply a stochastic modelling sequence, a Monte Carlo study, based on (i) creating an ensemble of possible realizations of a reservoir model, (ii) forward simulation of fluid flow and heat transport, and (iii) constraining post-processing using observed state variables. To generate the ensemble, we use the stochastic algorithm of Sequential Gaussian Simulation and test its potential fitting rock properties, such as thermal conductivity and permeability, of a synthetic reference model and—performing a corresponding forward simulation—state variables such as temperature. The ensemble yields probability distributions of rock properties and state variables at any location inside the reservoir. In addition, we perform a constraining post-processing in order to minimize the uncertainty of the obtained distributions by conditioning the ensemble to observed state variables, in this case temperature. This constraining post-processing works particularly well on systems dominated by fluid flow. The stochastic modelling sequence is applied to a large, steady-state 3-D heat flow model of a reservoir in The Hague, Netherlands. The spatial thermal conductivity distribution is simulated stochastically based on available logging data. Errors of bottom-hole temperatures provide thresholds for the constraining technique performed afterwards. This reduce the temperature uncertainty for the proposed target location significantly from 25 to 12 K (full distribution width) in a depth of 2300 m. Assuming a Gaussian shape of the temperature distribution, the standard deviation is 1.8 K. To allow a more comprehensive approach to quantify uncertainty, we also implement the stochastic simulation of boundary conditions and demonstrate this for the basal specific heat flow in the reservoir of The Hague. As expected, this results in a larger distribution width and hence, a larger, but more realistic uncertainty estimate. However, applying the constraining post-processing the uncertainty is again reduced to the level of the post-processing without stochastic boundary simulation. Thus, constraining post-processing is a suitable tool for reducing uncertainty estimates by observed state variables.
Pseudo-dynamische Versuche an Reihenmittelhäusern – Vergleich mit aktuellen Berechnungsansätzen
(2008)
Experimental determination of the cross sections of proton capture on radioactive nuclei is extremely difficult. Therefore, it is of substantial interest for the understanding of the production of the p-nuclei. For the first time, a direct measurement of proton-capture cross sections on stored, radioactive ions became possible in an energy range of interest for nuclear astrophysics. The experiment was performed at the Experimental Storage Ring (ESR) at GSI by making use of a sensitive method to measure (p,γ) and (p,n) reactions in inverse kinematics. These reaction channels are of high relevance for the nucleosyn-thesis processes in supernovae, which are among the most violent explosions in the universe and are not yet well understood. The cross section of the ¹¹⁸Te(p,γ) reaction has been measured at energies of 6 MeV/u and 7 MeV/u. The heavy ions interacted with a hydrogen gas jet target. The radiative recombination process of the fully stripped ¹¹⁸Te ions and electrons from the hydrogen target was used as a luminosity monitor. An overview of the experimental method and preliminary results from the ongoing analysis will be presented.
Planning the air-terminations for a structure to be protected the use of the rolling-sphere method (electro-geometrical model) is the best way from the physics of lightning point-of-view. Therefore, international standards prefer this method. However, using the rolling-sphere method only results in possible point-of-strikes on a structure without giving information about the probability of strikes at the individual points compared to others.
Prinzip und Anwendung der akustischen Gastemperaturmeßtechnik / Deuster, M. ; Brüssermann, Klaus
(1994)
Plans for investigations of subthreshold K+ production in p+A collisions / O. W. B. Schult [u.a.]
(1995)
In recent years, many onshore wind turbines are erected in seismic active regions and on soils with poor load bearing capacity, where pile grids are inevitable to transfer the loads into the ground. In this contribution, a realistic multi pile grid is designed to analyze the dynamics of a wind turbine tower including frequency dependent soil-structure-interaction. It turns out that different foundations on varying soil configurations heavily influence the vibration response. While the vibration amplitude is mostly attenuated, certain unfavorable combinations of structure and soil parameters lead to amplification in the range of the system's natural frequencies. This testifies the need for overall dynamic analysis in the assessment of the dynamic stability and the holistic frequency tuning of the turbines.
We analyze the influence of dipole-dipole interactions in an electromagnetically induced transparency set up for a density at the onset of cooperative effects. To this end, we include mean-field models for the influence of local-field corrections and radiation trapping into our calculation. We show both analytically and numerically that the polarization contribution to the local field strongly modulates the phase of a weak pulse. We give an intuitive explanation for this local-field-induced phase modulation and demonstrate that it distinctively differs from the nonlinear self-phase-modulation that a strong pulse experiences in a Kerr medium.
Partikelmesstechnik
(2002)
The fundamental modeling of energy systems through individual unit commitment decisions is crucial for energy system planning. However, current large-scale models are not capable of including uncertainties or even risk-averse behavior arising from forecasting errors of variable renewable energies. However, risks associated with uncertain forecasting errors have become increasingly relevant within the process of decarbonization. The intraday market serves to compensate for these forecasting errors. Thus, the uncertainty of forecasting errors results in uncertain intraday prices and quantities. Therefore, this paper proposes a two-stage risk-constrained stochastic optimization approach to fundamentally model unit commitment decisions facing an uncertain intraday market. By the nesting of Lagrangian relaxation and an extended Benders decomposition, this model can be applied to large-scale, e.g., pan-European, power systems. The approach is applied to scenarios for 2023—considering a full nuclear phase-out in Germany—and 2035—considering a full coal phase-out in Germany. First, the influence of the risk factors is evaluated. Furthermore, an evaluation of the market prices shows an increase in price levels as well as an increasing day-ahead-intraday spread in 2023 and in 2035. Finally, it is shown that intraday cross-border trading has a significant influence on trading volumes and prices and ensures a more efficient allocation of resources.
Organization and management of German-Russian joint ventures. Bock, Jürgen; Thielemann, Frank
(1994)
Antibias training is increasingly demanded and practiced in academia and industry to increase employees’ sensitivity to discrimination, racism, and diversity. Under the heading of “Diversity Management,” antibias trainings are mainly offered as one-off workshops intending to raise awareness of unconscious biases, create a diversity-affirming corporate culture, promote awareness of the potential of
diversity, and ultimately enable the reflection of diversity in development processes. However, coming from childhood education, research and scientific articles on the sustainable effectiveness of antibias in adulthood, especially in academia, are very scarce. In order to fill this research gap, the article aims to explore how sustainable the effects of individual antibias trainings on participants’ behavior are. In order to investigate this, participant observation in a qualitative pre–post setting was conducted, analyzing antibias training in an academic context. Two observers actively participated in the training sessions and documented the activities and reflection processes of the participants. Overall, the results question the effectiveness of single antibias trainings and show that a target-group adaptive approach is mandatory owing to the background of the approach in early childhood education. Therefore, antibias work needs to be adapted to the target group’s needs and realities of life. Furthermore, the study reveals that single antibias trainings must be embedded in a holistic diversity management approach to stimulate sustainable reflection processes among the target group. This article is one of the first to scientifically evaluate antibias training effectiveness, especially in engineering sciences and the university context.