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Quantifying and minimizing uncertainty is vital for simulating technically and economically successful geothermal reservoirs. To this end, we apply a stochastic modelling sequence, a Monte Carlo study, based on (i) creating an ensemble of possible realizations of a reservoir model, (ii) forward simulation of fluid flow and heat transport, and (iii) constraining post-processing using observed state variables. To generate the ensemble, we use the stochastic algorithm of Sequential Gaussian Simulation and test its potential fitting rock properties, such as thermal conductivity and permeability, of a synthetic reference model and—performing a corresponding forward simulation—state variables such as temperature. The ensemble yields probability distributions of rock properties and state variables at any location inside the reservoir. In addition, we perform a constraining post-processing in order to minimize the uncertainty of the obtained distributions by conditioning the ensemble to observed state variables, in this case temperature. This constraining post-processing works particularly well on systems dominated by fluid flow. The stochastic modelling sequence is applied to a large, steady-state 3-D heat flow model of a reservoir in The Hague, Netherlands. The spatial thermal conductivity distribution is simulated stochastically based on available logging data. Errors of bottom-hole temperatures provide thresholds for the constraining technique performed afterwards. This reduce the temperature uncertainty for the proposed target location significantly from 25 to 12 K (full distribution width) in a depth of 2300 m. Assuming a Gaussian shape of the temperature distribution, the standard deviation is 1.8 K. To allow a more comprehensive approach to quantify uncertainty, we also implement the stochastic simulation of boundary conditions and demonstrate this for the basal specific heat flow in the reservoir of The Hague. As expected, this results in a larger distribution width and hence, a larger, but more realistic uncertainty estimate. However, applying the constraining post-processing the uncertainty is again reduced to the level of the post-processing without stochastic boundary simulation. Thus, constraining post-processing is a suitable tool for reducing uncertainty estimates by observed state variables.
In diesem Artikel werden zunächst einleitend der Gasmarkt Deutschland und der sich daraus ergebende Speicherbedarf skizziert. Folgend wird auf verschiedene Speichernutzen aus betriebswirtschaftlicher Perspektive eingegangen und die in diesem Artikel vorgestellten Bewertungsverfahren einleitend beschrieben. In diesem Artikel werden stochastische Optimierungsmethoden aufgegriffen, die sowohl eine Bewertung der Speicher gegenüber einem Spotpreis, als auch gegenüber einer gesamten Forwardcurve ermöglichen. Hierzu werden zunächst Modelle zur Beschreibung der Marktpreise vorgestellt und anhand empirischer Daten kalibriert. Dann wird eine beispielhafte Speicherscheibe zunächst auf Basis der LeastSquareMonteCarloTechnik gegenüber dem stochastischen mehrfaktoriellen Spotpreismodell bewertet. Hieran schließt sich die Vorstellung der Bewertung sowie des Hedgings gegenüber der Forwardcurve an. Abschließend erfolgt eine vergleichende Gegenüberstellung beider Verfahren.
Simulating the electromagnetic‐thermal treatment of thin aluminium layers for adhesion improvement
(2015)
A composite layer material used in packaging industry is made from joining layers of different materials using an adhesive. An important processing step in the production of aluminium-containing composites is the surface treatment and consequent coating of adhesive material on the aluminium surface. To increase adhesion strength between aluminium layer and the adhesive material, the foil is heat treated. For efficient heating, induction heating was considered as state-of-the-art treatment process. Due to the complexity of the heating process and the unpredictable nature of the heating source, the control of the process is not yet optimised. In this work, a finite element analysis of the process was established and various process parameters were studied. The process was simplified and modelled in 3D. The numerical model contains an air domain, an aluminium layer and a copper coil fitted with a magnetic field concentrating material. The effect of changing the speed of the aluminium foil (or rolling speed) was studied with the change of the coil current. Statistical analysis was used for generating a general control equation of coil current with changing rolling speed.
Heat production in the windings of the stators of electric machines under stationary condition
(2014)
In electric machines due to high currents and resistive losses (joule heating) heat is produced. To avoid damages by overheating the design of effective cooling systems is required. Therefore the knowledge of heat sources and heat transfer processes is necessary. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate a good and effective calculation method for the temperature analysis based on homogenization techniques. These methods have been applied for the stator windings in a slot of an electric machine consisting of copper wires and resin. The key quantity here is an effective thermal conductivity, which characterizes the heterogeneous wire resin-arrangement inside the stator slot. To illustrate the applicability of the method, the analysis of a simplified, homogenized model is compared with the detailed analysis of temperature behavior inside a slot of an electric machine according to the heat generation. We considered here only the stationary situation. The achieved numerical results are accurate and show that the applied homogenization technique works in practice. Finally the results of simulations for the two cases, the original model of the slot and the homogenized model chosen for the slot (unit cell), are compared to experimental results.
Formeln statt Zahlen : Referenzwerte Formeln zur energetischen Bewertung von Produktionsanlagen
(2005)
Non-nuclear and non-fossil energy resources and their possibilities for future power generation
(1975)
It must be stressed that the assessment of the exploitation possibilities of the energy resources discussed in this paper requires further studies. With this proviso, the situation can be provisionally summarised as follows: The total potential of known geothermal steam sources is only 64 GW. Geothermal energy could therefore only make a significant contribution to covering the worldwide power needs if we succeed in exploiting dry geothermal reservoirs. Exploitation of tidal energy is limited to a few geographically favourable locations. The power generation potential at these locations is only about 64 GW. An important drawback of tidal power is discontinuous power generation. Large scale exploitation of wind, wave and glacier energy, and of ocean heat, requires solution of a number of technological problems. The environmental effects of exploitation of these energy resources are to some extent of a qualitatively different nature from those of operation of fossil-fuel-fired and of nuclear power plants. The scanty knowledge in this area often results in these effects being underestimated. In any case, however, it would be deliberately misleading to postulate that any form of power generation is possible without some detrimental effects on the environment. It may be stated in conclusion that, owing to their small potential or to the as yet insufficiently advanced technological development, none of the energy resources discussed in this paper can make a significant contribution to the solution of middle-term energy supply problems, i.e., to a rapid replacement of mineral oil and natural gas.