Impact of DNI forecast quality on performance prediction for a commercial scale solar tower: Application of nowcasting DNI maps to dynamic solar tower simulation

Concerning current efforts to improve operational efficiency and to lower overall costs of concentrating solar power (CSP) plants with prediction-based algorithms, this study investigates the quality and uncertainty of nowcasting data regarding the implications for process predictions. DNI (direct normal irradiation) maps from an all-sky imager-based nowcasting system are applied to a dynamic prediction model coupled with ray tracing. The results underline the need for high-resolution DNI maps in order to predict net yield and receiver outlet temperature realistically. Furthermore, based on a statistical uncertainty analysis, a correlation is developed, which allows for predicting the uncertainty of the net power prediction based on the corresponding DNI forecast uncertainty. However, the study reveals significant prediction errors and the demand for further improvement in the accuracy at which local shadings are forecasted.

Metadaten
Verfasserangaben:	Christian Schwager ORCiD, Florian Angele, Bijan Nouri, Peter Schwarzbözl ORCiD, Cristiano José Teixeira Boura ORCiD, Ulf Herrmann ORCiD
DOI:	https://doi.org/10.52825/solarpaces.v1i.675
ISSN:	2751-9899 (online)
Titel des übergeordneten Werkes (Englisch):	SolarPACES conference proceedings
Verlag:	TIB Open Publishing
Verlagsort:	Hannover
Dokumentart:	Konferenzveröffentlichung
Sprache:	Englisch
Erscheinungsjahr:	2022
Datum der Erstveröffentlichung:	08.03.2024
Datum der Publikation (Server):	14.03.2024
Freies Schlagwort / Tag:	DNI forecasting; Molten salt receiver system,; Nowcasting; Process prediction; Uncertainty analysis
Ausgabe / Heft:	Vol. 1
Umfang:	9 Seiten
Bemerkung:	28th International Conference on Concentrating Solar Power and Chemical Energy Systems, 27-30 September, Albuquerque, NM, USA
Link:	https://doi.org/10.52825/solarpaces.v1i.675
Fachbereiche und Einrichtungen:	FH Aachen / Fachbereich Energietechnik
	FH Aachen / Solar-Institut Jülich
	FH Aachen / ECSM European Center for Sustainable Mobility
	FH Aachen / Kommission für Forschung und Entwicklung
collections:	Verlag / TIB Open Publishing
Lizenz (Deutsch):	Creative Commons - Namensnennung

Open Access