Impact of DNI forecast quality on performance prediction for a commercial scale solar tower: Application of nowcasting DNI maps to dynamic solar tower simulation
- Concerning current efforts to improve operational efficiency and to lower overall costs of concentrating solar power (CSP) plants with prediction-based algorithms, this study investigates the quality and uncertainty of nowcasting data regarding the implications for process predictions. DNI (direct normal irradiation) maps from an all-sky imager-based nowcasting system are applied to a dynamic prediction model coupled with ray tracing. The results underline the need for high-resolution DNI maps in order to predict net yield and receiver outlet temperature realistically. Furthermore, based on a statistical uncertainty analysis, a correlation is developed, which allows for predicting the uncertainty of the net power prediction based on the corresponding DNI forecast uncertainty. However, the study reveals significant prediction errors and the demand for further improvement in the accuracy at which local shadings are forecasted.
| Author: | Christian SchwagerORCiD, Florian Angele, Bijan Nouri, Peter SchwarzbözlORCiD, Cristiano José Teixeira BouraORCiD, Ulf HerrmannORCiD |
|---|---|
| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.52825/solarpaces.v1i.675 |
| ISSN: | 2751-9899 (online) |
| Parent Title (English): | SolarPACES 2022 conference proceedings |
| Publisher: | TIB Open Publishing |
| Place of publication: | Hannover |
| Document Type: | Conference Proceeding |
| Language: | English |
| Year of Completion: | 2022 |
| Date of first Publication: | 2024/03/08 |
| Date of the Publication (Server): | 2024/03/14 |
| Tag: | DNI forecasting; Molten salt receiver system,; Nowcasting; Process prediction; Uncertainty analysis |
| Issue: | 1 |
| Length: | 9 Seiten |
| Note: | SolarPACES 2022, 28th International Conference on Concentrating Solar Power and Chemical Energy Systems, 27-30 September, Albuquerque, NM, USA |
| Link: | https://doi.org/10.52825/solarpaces.v1i.675 |
| Institutes: | FH Aachen / ECSM European Center for Sustainable Mobility |
| FH Aachen / Fachbereich Energietechnik | |
| FH Aachen / Kommission für Forschung und Entwicklung | |
| FH Aachen / Solar-Institut Jülich | |
| open_access (DINI-Set): | open_access |
| collections: | Verlag / TIB Open Publishing |
| Licence (German): |  Creative Commons - Namensnennung |
