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Impact of DNI forecast quality on performance prediction for a commercial scale solar tower: Application of nowcasting DNI maps to dynamic solar tower simulation

  • Concerning current efforts to improve operational efficiency and to lower overall costs of concentrating solar power (CSP) plants with prediction-based algorithms, this study investigates the quality and uncertainty of nowcasting data regarding the implications for process predictions. DNI (direct normal irradiation) maps from an all-sky imager-based nowcasting system are applied to a dynamic prediction model coupled with ray tracing. The results underline the need for high-resolution DNI maps in order to predict net yield and receiver outlet temperature realistically. Furthermore, based on a statistical uncertainty analysis, a correlation is developed, which allows for predicting the uncertainty of the net power prediction based on the corresponding DNI forecast uncertainty. However, the study reveals significant prediction errors and the demand for further improvement in the accuracy at which local shadings are forecasted.

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Metadaten
Author:Christian SchwagerORCiD, Florian Angele, Bijan Nouri, Peter SchwarzbözlORCiD, Cristiano José Teixeira BouraORCiD, Ulf HerrmannORCiD
DOI:https://doi.org/10.52825/solarpaces.v1i.675
ISSN:2751-9899 (online)
Parent Title (English):SolarPACES 2022 conference proceedings
Publisher:TIB Open Publishing
Place of publication:Hannover
Document Type:Conference Proceeding
Language:English
Year of Completion:2022
Date of first Publication:2024/03/08
Date of the Publication (Server):2024/03/14
Tag:DNI forecasting; Molten salt receiver system,; Nowcasting; Process prediction; Uncertainty analysis
Issue:1
Length:9 Seiten
Note:
SolarPACES 2022, 28th International Conference on Concentrating Solar Power and Chemical Energy Systems, 27-30 September, Albuquerque, NM, USA
Link:https://doi.org/10.52825/solarpaces.v1i.675
Institutes:FH Aachen / ECSM European Center for Sustainable Mobility
FH Aachen / Fachbereich Energietechnik
FH Aachen / Kommission für Forschung und Entwicklung
FH Aachen / Solar-Institut Jülich
open_access (DINI-Set):open_access
collections:Verlag / TIB Open Publishing
Licence (German): Creative Commons - Namensnennung