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We consider a binary multivariate regression model where the conditional expectation of a binary variable given a higher-dimensional input variable belongs to a parametric family. Based on this, we introduce a model-based bootstrap (MBB) for higher-dimensional input variables. This test can be used to check whether a sequence of independent and identically distributed observations belongs to such a parametric family. The approach is based on the empirical residual process introduced by Stute (Ann Statist 25:613–641, 1997). In contrast to Stute and Zhu’s approach (2002) Stute & Zhu (Scandinavian J Statist 29:535–545, 2002), a transformation is not required. Thus, any problems associated with non-parametric regression estimation are avoided. As a result, the MBB method is much easier for users to implement. To illustrate the power of the MBB based tests, a small simulation study is performed. Compared to the approach of Stute & Zhu (Scandinavian J Statist 29:535–545, 2002), the simulations indicate a slightly improved power of the MBB based method. Finally, both methods are applied to a real data set.
The increasing share of renewable electricity in the grid drives the need for sufficient storage capacity. Especially for seasonal storage, power-to-gas can be a promising approach. Biologically produced methane from hydrogen produced from surplus electricity can be used to substitute natural gas in the existing infrastructure. Current reactor types are not or are poorly optimized for flexible methanation. Therefore, this work proposes a new reactor type with a plug flow reactor (PFR) design. Simulations in COMSOL Multiphysics ® showed promising properties for operation in laminar flow. An experiment was conducted to support the simulation results and to determine the gas fraction of the novel reactor, which was measured to be 29%. Based on these simulations and experimental results, the reactor was constructed as a 14 m long, 50 mm diameter tube with a meandering orientation. Data processing was established, and a step experiment was performed. In addition, a kLa of 1 h−1 was determined. The results revealed that the experimental outcomes of the type of flow and gas fractions are in line with the theoretical simulation. The new design shows promising properties for flexible methanation and will be tested.
In the presented paper data collected from the field related to damage statistics of electrical and electronic apparatus in household are reported and investigated. These damages (total number approx. 74000 cases), registered by five German insurance companies in 2005 and 2006, were adviced by customers as caused by lightning overvoltages. With the use of stochastical methods it is possible, to reasses the collected data and to distinguish between cases, which are with high probability caused by lightning overvoltages, and those, which are not. If there was an indication for a direct strike, this case was excluded, so the focus was only on indirect lightning flashes, i.e. only flashes to ground near the structure and flashes to or nearby an incoming service line were investigated. The data from the field contain the location of damaged apparatus (residence of the policy holder) and the distances of the nearest cloud-to-ground stroke to the location of the damage registered by the German lightning location network BLIDS at the date of damage. The statistical data along with some complementary numerical simulations allow to verify the correspondence of the Standards rules used for IEC 62305-2 with the field data and to define some correction needs. The results could lead to a better understanding whether a damage reported to an insurance company is really caused by indirect lightning, or not.
In the paper the results obtained from experiments at a modelled reinforced building in case of a direct lightning strike are compared with calculations. The comparison includes peak values of the magnetic field Hmax, its derivative (dH/dt)max and of induced voltages umax in typical cable routings. The experiments are performed at a 1:6 scaled building and the results are extrapolated using the similarity relations theory. The calculations are based on the approximate formulae given in IEC 62305-4 and have to be supplemented by a rough estimation of the additional shielding effect of a second reinforcement layer. The comparison shows, that the measured peak values of the magnetic field and its derivative are mostly lower than the calculated. The induced voltages are in good agreement. Hence, calculations of the induced voltages based on IEC 62305-4 are a good method for lightning protection studies of buildings, where the reinforcement is used as a grid-like electromagnetic shield.
In the paper a lightning protection design concept for renewable energy hybrid-systems without power mains connection is described. Based on a risk analysis protection measures against direct strikes and overvoltages are shown in an overview. The design concept is realized exemplarily for the hybrid-system VATALI on the Greek island Crete. VATALI, not lightning protected at that time, was a victim of a lightning strike in the year 2000 causing destructions and damages of some mechanical and electrical components with costs of approx. 60.000 €. The hardware costs for the protection measures were about 15.000 €: about 50% of the costs are due to protection measures against direct strikes, 50% are due to overvoltage protection.
Lightning protection design of a renewable energy hybrid-system without power mains connection
(2001)
In the year 2000 a direct lightning strike to the hybridsystem without power mains connection VATALI on the Greek island Crete results in the destruction and damage of some mechanical and electrical components. The hybrid-system VATALI was not lightning protected at that time. The hardware damage costs are approx. 60,000 €. The exposed site of the hybrid-system on top of a mountain was and still is the reason for a high risk of lightning strikes. Also in the future further lightning strikes have to be taken into consideration. In the paper a fundamental lightning protection design concept for renewable energy hybrid-systems without power mains connection and protection measures against direct strikes and overvoltages are shown in detail. The design concept was realized exemplarily for the hybrid-system VATALI. The hardware costs for the protection measures were about 15,000 €. About 50% of the costs are due to protection measures against direct strikes, 50% are due to overvoltage protection. Future extensions, new installations, or modifications have to be included into the lightning protection design concept of the hybrid-system.
This study analyses the expected utilization of an urban distribution grid under high penetration of photovoltaic and e-mobility with charging infrastructure on a residential level. The grid utilization and the corresponding power flow are evaluated, while varying the control strategies and photovoltaic installed capacity in different scenarios. Four scenarios are used to analyze the impact of e-mobility. The individual mobility demand is modelled based on the largest German studies on mobility “Mobilität in Deutschland”, which is carried out every 5 years. To estimate the ramp-up of photovoltaic generation, a potential analysis of the roof surfaces in the supply area is carried out via an evaluation of an open solar potential study. The photovoltaic feed-in time series is derived individually for each installed system in a resolution of 15 min. The residential consumption is estimated using historical smart meter data, which are collected in London between 2012 and 2014. For a realistic charging demand, each residential household decides daily on the state of charge if their vehicle requires to be charged. The resulting charging time series depends on the underlying behavior scenario. Market prices and mobility demand are therefore used as scenario input parameters for a utility function based on the current state of charge to model individual behavior. The aggregated electricity demand is the starting point of the power flow calculation. The evaluation is carried out for an urban region with approximately 3100 residents. The analysis shows that increased penetration of photovoltaics combined with a flexible and adaptive charging strategy can maximize PV usage and reduce the need for congestion-related intervention by the grid operator by reducing the amount of kWh charged from the grid by 30% which reduces the average price of a charged kWh by 35% to 14 ct/kWh from 21.8 ct/kWh without PV optimization. The resulting grid congestions are managed by implementing an intelligent price or control signal. The analysis took place using data from a real German grid with 10 subgrids. The entire software can be adapted for the analysis of different distribution grids and is publicly available as an open-source software library on GitHub.