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Modeling contribution to risk assessment of thermal production power for geothermal reservoirs
(2013)
Quantifying and minimizing uncertainty is vital for simulating technically and economically successful geothermal reservoirs. To this end, we apply a stochastic modelling sequence, a Monte Carlo study, based on (i) creating an ensemble of possible realizations of a reservoir model, (ii) forward simulation of fluid flow and heat transport, and (iii) constraining post-processing using observed state variables. To generate the ensemble, we use the stochastic algorithm of Sequential Gaussian Simulation and test its potential fitting rock properties, such as thermal conductivity and permeability, of a synthetic reference model and—performing a corresponding forward simulation—state variables such as temperature. The ensemble yields probability distributions of rock properties and state variables at any location inside the reservoir. In addition, we perform a constraining post-processing in order to minimize the uncertainty of the obtained distributions by conditioning the ensemble to observed state variables, in this case temperature. This constraining post-processing works particularly well on systems dominated by fluid flow. The stochastic modelling sequence is applied to a large, steady-state 3-D heat flow model of a reservoir in The Hague, Netherlands. The spatial thermal conductivity distribution is simulated stochastically based on available logging data. Errors of bottom-hole temperatures provide thresholds for the constraining technique performed afterwards. This reduce the temperature uncertainty for the proposed target location significantly from 25 to 12 K (full distribution width) in a depth of 2300 m. Assuming a Gaussian shape of the temperature distribution, the standard deviation is 1.8 K. To allow a more comprehensive approach to quantify uncertainty, we also implement the stochastic simulation of boundary conditions and demonstrate this for the basal specific heat flow in the reservoir of The Hague. As expected, this results in a larger distribution width and hence, a larger, but more realistic uncertainty estimate. However, applying the constraining post-processing the uncertainty is again reduced to the level of the post-processing without stochastic boundary simulation. Thus, constraining post-processing is a suitable tool for reducing uncertainty estimates by observed state variables.
Following earlier studies, we present forward and inverse simulations of heat and fluid transport of the upper crust using a local 3-D model of the Kola area. We provide best estimates for palaeotemperatures and permeabilities, their errors and their dependencies. Our results allow discriminating between the two mentioned processes to a certain extent, partly resolving the non-uniqueness of the problem. We find clear indications for a significant contribution of advective heat transport, which, in turn, imply only slightly lower ground surface temperatures during the last glacial maximum relative to the present value. These findings are consistent with the general background knowledge of (i) the fracture zones and the corresponding fluid movements in the bedrock and (ii) the glacial history of the Kola area.
Mass transfer correlation for evaporation–condensation thermal process in the range of 70 °C–95 °C
(2013)
Stored and cooled, highly-charged ions offer unprecedented capabilities for precision studies in the realm of atomic, nuclear structure and astrophysics[1]. After the successful investigation of the 96Ru(p,7)97Rh reaction cross section in 2009[2], the first measurement of the 124Xe(p,7)125Cs reaction cross section has been performed with decelerated, fully-ionized 124Xe ions in 2016 at the Experimental Storage Ring (ESR) of GSI[3]. Using a Double Sided Silicon Strip Detector, introduced directly into the ultra-high vacuum environment of a storage ring, the 125Cs proton-capture products have been successfully detected. The cross section has been measured at 5 different energies between 5.5AMeV and 8AMeV, on the high energy tail of the Gamow-window for hot, explosive scenarios such as supernovae and X-ray binaries. The elastic scattering on the H2 gas jet target is the major source of background to count the (p,7) events. Monte Carlo simulations show that an additional slit system in the ESR in combination with the energy information of the Si detector will enable background free measurements of the proton-capture products. The corresponding hardware is being prepared and will increase the sensitivity of the method tremendously.
Robust estimators for free surface turbulence characterization: A stepped spillway application
(2020)
Robust estimators are parameters insensitive to the presence of outliers. However, they presume the shape of the variables’ probability density function. This study exemplifies the sensitivity of turbulent quantities to the use of classic and robust estimators and the presence of outliers in turbulent flow depth time series. A wide range of turbulence quantities was analysed based upon a stepped spillway case study, using flow depths sampled with Acoustic Displacement Meters as the flow variable of interest. The studied parameters include: the expected free surface level, the expected fluctuation intensity, the depth skewness, the autocorrelation timescales, the vertical velocity fluctuation intensity, the perturbations celerity and the one-dimensional free surface turbulence spectrum. Three levels of filtering were utilised prior to applying classic and robust estimators, showing that comparable robustness can be obtained either using classic estimators together with an intermediate filtering technique or using robust estimators instead, without any filtering technique.
Unsteady shallow meandering flows in rectangular reservoirs: a modal analysis of URANS modelling
(2022)
Shallow flows are common in natural and human-made environments. Even for simple rectangular shallow reservoirs, recent laboratory experiments show that the developing flow fields are particularly complex, involving large-scale turbulent structures. For specific combinations of reservoir size and hydraulic conditions, a meandering jet can be observed. While some aspects of this pseudo-2D flow pattern can be reproduced using a 2D numerical model, new 3D simulations, based on the unsteady Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations, show consistent advantages as presented herein. A Proper Orthogonal Decomposition was used to characterize the four most energetic modes of the meandering jet at the free surface level, allowing comparison against experimental data and 2D (depth-averaged) numerical results. Three different isotropic eddy viscosity models (RNG k-ε, k-ε, k-ω) were tested. The 3D models accurately predicted the frequency of the modes, whereas the amplitudes of the modes and associated energy were damped for the friction-dominant cases and augmented for non-frictional ones. The performance of the three turbulence models remained essentially similar, with slightly better predictions by RNG k-ε model in the case with the highest Reynolds number. Finally, the Q-criterion was used to identify vortices and study their dynamics, assisting on the identification of the differences between: i) the three-dimensional phenomenon (here reproduced), ii) its two-dimensional footprint in the free surface (experimental observations) and iii) the depth-averaged case (represented by 2D models).
New information regarding the influence of a stepped chute on the hydraulic performance of the United States Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) Type III hydraulic jump stilling basin is presented for design (steady) and adverse (decreasing tailwater) conditions. Using published experimental data and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models, this paper presents a detailed comparison between smooth-chute and stepped-chute configurations for chute slopes of 0.8H:1V and 4H:1V and Froude numbers (F) ranging from 3.1 to 9.5 for a Type III basin designed for F = 8. For both stepped and smooth chutes, the relative role of each basin element was quantified, up to the most hydraulic extreme case of jump sweep-out. It was found that, relative to a smooth chute, the turbulence generated by a stepped chute causes a higher maximum velocity decay within the stilling basin, which represents an enhancement of the Type III basin’s performance but also a change in the relative role of the basin elements. Results provide insight into the ability of the CFD models [unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations with renormalization group (RNG) k-ϵ turbulence model and volume-of-fluid (VOF) for free surface tracking] to predict the transient basin flow structure and velocity profiles. Type III basins can perform adequately with a stepped chute despite the effects steps have on the relative role of each basin element. It is concluded that the classic Type III basin design, based upon methodology by reclamation specific to smooth chutes, can be hydraulically improved for the case of stepped chutes for design and adverse flow conditions using the information presented herein.