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- Fachbereich Medizintechnik und Technomathematik (2052) (remove)
We consider time-dependent portfolios and discuss the allocation of changes in the risk of a portfolio to changes in the portfolio’s components. For this purpose we adopt established allocation principles. We also use our approach to obtain forecasts for changes in the risk of the portfolio’s components. To put the approach into practice we present an implementation based on the output of a simulation. Allocation is illustrated with an example portfolio in the context of Solvency II. The quality of the forecasts is investigated with an empirical study.
On the applicability of several tests to models with not identically distributed random effects
(2023)
We consider Kolmogorov–Smirnov and Cramér–von-Mises type tests for testing central symmetry, exchangeability, and independence. In the standard case, the tests are intended for the application to independent and identically distributed data with unknown distribution. The tests are available for multivariate data and bootstrap procedures are suitable to obtain critical values. We discuss the applicability of the tests to random effects models, where the random effects are independent but not necessarily identically distributed and with possibly unknown distributions. Theoretical results show the adequacy of the tests in this situation. The quality of the tests in models with random effects is investigated by simulations. Empirical results obtained confirm the theoretical findings. A real data example illustrates the application.
Ambitious climate targets affect the competitiveness of industries in the international market. To prevent such industries from moving to other countries in the wake of increased climate protection efforts, cost adjustments may become necessary. Their design requires knowledge of country-specific production costs. Here, we present country-specific cost figures for different production routes of steel, paying particular attention to transportation costs. The data can be used in floor price models aiming to assess the competitiveness of different steel production routes in different countries (Rübbelke, 2022).
Market abstraction of energy markets and policies - application in an agent-based modeling toolbox
(2023)
In light of emerging challenges in energy systems, markets are prone to changing dynamics and market design. Simulation models are commonly used to understand the changing dynamics of future electricity markets. However, existing market models were often created with specific use cases in mind, which limits their flexibility and usability. This can impose challenges for using a single model to compare different market designs. This paper introduces a new method of defining market designs for energy market simulations. The proposed concept makes it easy to incorporate different market designs into electricity market models by using relevant parameters derived from analyzing existing simulation tools, morphological categorization and ontologies. These parameters are then used to derive a market abstraction and integrate it into an agent-based simulation framework, allowing for a unified analysis of diverse market designs. Furthermore, we showcase the usability of integrating new types of long-term contracts and over-the-counter trading. To validate this approach, two case studies are demonstrated: a pay-as-clear market and a pay-as-bid long-term market. These examples demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed framework.
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Using scenarios is vital in identifying and specifying measures for successfully transforming the energy system. Such transformations can be particularly challenging and require the support of a broader set of stakeholders. Otherwise, there will be opposition in the form of reluctance to adopt the necessary technologies. Usually, processes for considering stakeholders' perspectives are very time-consuming and costly. In particular, there are uncertainties about how to deal with modifications in the scenarios. In principle, new consulting processes will be required. In our study, we show how multi-criteria decision analysis can be used to analyze stakeholders' attitudes toward transition paths. Since stakeholders differ regarding their preferences and time horizons, we employ a multi-criteria decision analysis approach to identify which stakeholders will support or oppose a transition path. We provide a flexible template for analyzing stakeholder preferences toward transition paths. This flexibility comes from the fact that our multi-criteria decision aid-based approach does not involve intensive empirical work with stakeholders. Instead, it involves subjecting assumptions to robustness analysis, which can help identify options to influence stakeholders' attitudes toward transitions.
Messenger apps like WhatsApp and Telegram are frequently used for everyday communication, but they can also be utilized as a platform for illegal activity. Telegram allows public groups with up to 200.000 participants. Criminals use these public groups for trading illegal commodities and services, which becomes a concern for law enforcement agencies, who manually monitor suspicious activity in these chat rooms. This research demonstrates how natural language processing (NLP) can assist in analyzing these chat rooms, providing an explorative overview of the domain and facilitating purposeful analyses of user behavior. We provide a publicly available corpus of annotated text messages with entities and relations from four self-proclaimed black market chat rooms. Our pipeline approach aggregates the extracted product attributes from user messages to profiles and uses these with their sold products as features for clustering. The extracted structured information is the foundation for further data exploration, such as identifying the top vendors or fine-granular price analyses. Our evaluation shows that pretrained word vectors perform better for unsupervised clustering than state-of-the-art transformer models, while the latter is still superior for sequence labeling.
It has been shown that muscle fascicle curvature increases with increasing contraction level and decreasing muscle–tendon complex length. The analyses were done with limited examination windows concerning contraction level, muscle–tendon complex length, and/or intramuscular position of ultrasound imaging. With this study we aimed to investigate the correlation between fascicle arching and contraction, muscle–tendon complex length and their associated architectural parameters in gastrocnemius muscles to develop hypotheses concerning the fundamental mechanism of fascicle curving. Twelve participants were tested in five different positions (90°/105°*, 90°/90°*, 135°/90°*, 170°/90°*, and 170°/75°*; *knee/ankle angle). They performed isometric contractions at four different contraction levels (5%, 25%, 50%, and 75% of maximum voluntary contraction) in each position. Panoramic ultrasound images of gastrocnemius muscles were collected at rest and during constant contraction. Aponeuroses and fascicles were tracked in all ultrasound images and the parameters fascicle curvature, muscle–tendon complex strain, contraction level, pennation angle, fascicle length, fascicle strain, intramuscular position, sex and age group were analyzed by linear mixed effect models. Mean fascicle curvature of the medial gastrocnemius increased with contraction level (+5 m−1 from 0% to 100%; p = 0.006). Muscle–tendon complex length had no significant impact on mean fascicle curvature. Mean pennation angle (2.2 m−1 per 10°; p < 0.001), inverse mean fascicle length (20 m−1 per cm−1; p = 0.003), and mean fascicle strain (−0.07 m−1 per +10%; p = 0.004) correlated with mean fascicle curvature. Evidence has also been found for intermuscular, intramuscular, and sex-specific intramuscular differences of fascicle curving. Pennation angle and the inverse fascicle length show the highest predictive capacities for fascicle curving. Due to the strong correlations between pennation angle and fascicle curvature and the intramuscular pattern of curving we suggest for future studies to examine correlations between fascicle curvature and intramuscular fluid pressure.