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We consider time-dependent portfolios and discuss the allocation of changes in the risk of a portfolio to changes in the portfolio’s components. For this purpose we adopt established allocation principles. We also use our approach to obtain forecasts for changes in the risk of the portfolio’s components. To put the approach into practice we present an implementation based on the output of a simulation. Allocation is illustrated with an example portfolio in the context of Solvency II. The quality of the forecasts is investigated with an empirical study.
On the applicability of several tests to models with not identically distributed random effects
(2023)
We consider Kolmogorov–Smirnov and Cramér–von-Mises type tests for testing central symmetry, exchangeability, and independence. In the standard case, the tests are intended for the application to independent and identically distributed data with unknown distribution. The tests are available for multivariate data and bootstrap procedures are suitable to obtain critical values. We discuss the applicability of the tests to random effects models, where the random effects are independent but not necessarily identically distributed and with possibly unknown distributions. Theoretical results show the adequacy of the tests in this situation. The quality of the tests in models with random effects is investigated by simulations. Empirical results obtained confirm the theoretical findings. A real data example illustrates the application.
Ambitious climate targets affect the competitiveness of industries in the international market. To prevent such industries from moving to other countries in the wake of increased climate protection efforts, cost adjustments may become necessary. Their design requires knowledge of country-specific production costs. Here, we present country-specific cost figures for different production routes of steel, paying particular attention to transportation costs. The data can be used in floor price models aiming to assess the competitiveness of different steel production routes in different countries (Rübbelke, 2022).
Using scenarios is vital in identifying and specifying measures for successfully transforming the energy system. Such transformations can be particularly challenging and require the support of a broader set of stakeholders. Otherwise, there will be opposition in the form of reluctance to adopt the necessary technologies. Usually, processes for considering stakeholders' perspectives are very time-consuming and costly. In particular, there are uncertainties about how to deal with modifications in the scenarios. In principle, new consulting processes will be required. In our study, we show how multi-criteria decision analysis can be used to analyze stakeholders' attitudes toward transition paths. Since stakeholders differ regarding their preferences and time horizons, we employ a multi-criteria decision analysis approach to identify which stakeholders will support or oppose a transition path. We provide a flexible template for analyzing stakeholder preferences toward transition paths. This flexibility comes from the fact that our multi-criteria decision aid-based approach does not involve intensive empirical work with stakeholders. Instead, it involves subjecting assumptions to robustness analysis, which can help identify options to influence stakeholders' attitudes toward transitions.
It has been shown that muscle fascicle curvature increases with increasing contraction level and decreasing muscle–tendon complex length. The analyses were done with limited examination windows concerning contraction level, muscle–tendon complex length, and/or intramuscular position of ultrasound imaging. With this study we aimed to investigate the correlation between fascicle arching and contraction, muscle–tendon complex length and their associated architectural parameters in gastrocnemius muscles to develop hypotheses concerning the fundamental mechanism of fascicle curving. Twelve participants were tested in five different positions (90°/105°*, 90°/90°*, 135°/90°*, 170°/90°*, and 170°/75°*; *knee/ankle angle). They performed isometric contractions at four different contraction levels (5%, 25%, 50%, and 75% of maximum voluntary contraction) in each position. Panoramic ultrasound images of gastrocnemius muscles were collected at rest and during constant contraction. Aponeuroses and fascicles were tracked in all ultrasound images and the parameters fascicle curvature, muscle–tendon complex strain, contraction level, pennation angle, fascicle length, fascicle strain, intramuscular position, sex and age group were analyzed by linear mixed effect models. Mean fascicle curvature of the medial gastrocnemius increased with contraction level (+5 m−1 from 0% to 100%; p = 0.006). Muscle–tendon complex length had no significant impact on mean fascicle curvature. Mean pennation angle (2.2 m−1 per 10°; p < 0.001), inverse mean fascicle length (20 m−1 per cm−1; p = 0.003), and mean fascicle strain (−0.07 m−1 per +10%; p = 0.004) correlated with mean fascicle curvature. Evidence has also been found for intermuscular, intramuscular, and sex-specific intramuscular differences of fascicle curving. Pennation angle and the inverse fascicle length show the highest predictive capacities for fascicle curving. Due to the strong correlations between pennation angle and fascicle curvature and the intramuscular pattern of curving we suggest for future studies to examine correlations between fascicle curvature and intramuscular fluid pressure.
Herein, fibroin, polylactide (PLA), and carbon are investigated for their suitability as biocompatible and biodegradable materials for amperometric biosensors. For this purpose, screen-printed carbon electrodes on the biodegradable substrates fibroin and PLA are modified with a glucose oxidase membrane and then encapsulated with the biocompatible material Ecoflex. The influence of different curing parameters of the carbon electrodes on the resulting biosensor characteristics is studied. The morphology of the electrodes is investigated by scanning electron microscopy, and the biosensor performance is examined by amperometric measurements of glucose (0.5–10 mM) in phosphate buffer solution, pH 7.4, at an applied potential of 1.2 V versus a Ag/AgCl reference electrode. Instead of Ecoflex, fibroin, PLA, and wound adhesive are tested as alternative encapsulation compounds: a series of swelling tests with different fibroin compositions, PLA, and Ecoflex has been performed before characterizing the most promising candidates by chronoamperometry. Therefore, the carbon electrodes are completely covered with the particular encapsulation material. Chronoamperometric measurements with H2O2 concentrations between 0.5 and 10 mM enable studying the leakage current behavior.
Background
Post-COVID-19 syndrome (PCS) is a lingering disease with ongoing symptoms such as fatigue and cognitive impairment resulting in a high impact on the daily life of patients. Understanding the pathophysiology of PCS is a public health priority, as it still poses a diagnostic and treatment challenge for physicians.
Methods
In this prospective observational cohort study, we analyzed the retinal microcirculation using Retinal Vessel Analysis (RVA) in a cohort of patients with PCS and compared it to an age- and gender-matched healthy cohort (n = 41, matched out of n = 204).
Measurements and main results
PCS patients exhibit persistent endothelial dysfunction (ED), as indicated by significantly lower venular flicker-induced dilation (vFID; 3.42% ± 1.77% vs. 4.64% ± 2.59%; p = 0.02), narrower central retinal artery equivalent (CRAE; 178.1 [167.5–190.2] vs. 189.1 [179.4–197.2], p = 0.01) and lower arteriolar-venular ratio (AVR; (0.84 [0.8–0.9] vs. 0.88 [0.8–0.9], p = 0.007). When combining AVR and vFID, predicted scores reached good ability to discriminate groups (area under the curve: 0.75). Higher PCS severity scores correlated with lower AVR (R = − 0.37 p = 0.017). The association of microvascular changes with PCS severity were amplified in PCS patients exhibiting higher levels of inflammatory parameters.
Conclusion
Our results demonstrate that prolonged endothelial dysfunction is a hallmark of PCS, and impairments of the microcirculation seem to explain ongoing symptoms in patients. As potential therapies for PCS emerge, RVA parameters may become relevant as clinical biomarkers for diagnosis and therapy management.
A method for detecting and approximating fault lines or surfaces, respectively, or decision curves in two and three dimensions with guaranteed accuracy is presented. Reformulated as a classification problem, our method starts from a set of scattered points along with the corresponding classification algorithm to construct a representation of a decision curve by points with prescribed maximal distance to the true decision curve. Hereby, our algorithm ensures that the representing point set covers the decision curve in its entire extent and features local refinement based on the geometric properties of the decision curve. We demonstrate applications of our method to problems related to the detection of faults, to multi-criteria decision aid and, in combination with Kirsch’s factorization method, to solving an inverse acoustic scattering problem. In all applications we considered in this work, our method requires significantly less pointwise classifications than previously employed algorithms.
This study evaluates neuromechanical control and muscle-tendon interaction during energy storage and dissipation tasks in hypergravity. During parabolic flights, while 17 subjects performed drop jumps (DJs) and drop landings (DLs), electromyography (EMG) of the lower limb muscles was combined with in vivo fascicle dynamics of the gastrocnemius medialis, two-dimensional (2D) kinematics, and kinetics to measure and analyze changes in energy management. Comparisons were made between movement modalities executed in hypergravity (1.8 G) and gravity on ground (1 G). In 1.8 G, ankle dorsiflexion, knee joint flexion, and vertical center of mass (COM) displacement are lower in DJs than in DLs; within each movement modality, joint flexion amplitudes and COM displacement demonstrate higher values in 1.8 G than in 1 G. Concomitantly, negative peak ankle joint power, vertical ground reaction forces, and leg stiffness are similar between both movement modalities (1.8 G). In DJs, EMG activity in 1.8 G is lower during the COM deceleration phase than in 1 G, thus impairing quasi-isometric fascicle behavior. In DLs, EMG activity before and during the COM deceleration phase is higher, and fascicles are stretched less in 1.8 G than in 1 G. Compared with the situation in 1 G, highly task-specific neuromuscular activity is diminished in 1.8 G, resulting in fascicle lengthening in both movement modalities. Specifically, in DJs, a high magnitude of neuromuscular activity is impaired, resulting in altered energy storage. In contrast, in DLs, linear stiffening of the system due to higher neuromuscular activity combined with lower fascicle stretch enhances the buffering function of the tendon, and thus the capacity to safely dissipate energy.