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For now, the Planetary Defense Conference Exercise 2021's incoming fictitious(!), asteroid, 2021 PDC, seems headed for impact on October 20th, 2021, exactly 6 months after its discovery. Today (April 26th, 2021), the impact probability is 5%, in a steep rise from 1 in 2500 upon discovery six days ago. We all know how these things end. Or do we? Unless somebody kicked off another headline-grabbing media scare or wants to keep civil defense very idle very soon, chances are that it will hit (note: this is an exercise!). Taking stock, it is barely 6 months to impact, a steadily rising likelihood that it will actually happen, and a huge uncertainty of possible impact energies: First estimates range from 1.2 MtTNT to 13 GtTNT, and this is not even the worst-worst case: a 700 m diameter massive NiFe asteroid (covered by a thin veneer of Ryugu-black rubble to match size and brightness), would come in at 70 GtTNT. In down to Earth terms, this could be all between smashing fireworks over some remote area of the globe and a 7.5 km crater downtown somewhere. Considering the deliberate and sedate ways of development of interplanetary missions it seems we can only stand and stare until we know well enough where to tell people to pack up all that can be moved at all and save themselves. But then, it could just as well be a smaller bright rock. The best estimate is 120 m diameter from optical observation alone, by 13% standard albedo. NASA's upcoming DART mission to binary asteroid (65803) Didymos is designed to hit such a small target, its moonlet Dimorphos. The Deep Impact mission's impactor in 2005 successfully guided itself to the brightest spot on comet 9P/Tempel 1, a relatively small feature on the 6 km nucleus. And 'space' has changed: By the end of this decade, one satellite communication network plans to have launched over 11000 satellites at a pace of 60 per launch every other week. This level of series production is comparable in numbers to the most prolific commercial airliners. Launch vehicle production has not simply increased correspondingly – they can be reused, although in a trade for performance. Optical and radio astronomy as well as planetary radar have made great strides in the past decade, and so has the design and production capability for everyday 'high-tech' products. 60 years ago, spaceflight was invented from scratch within two years, and there are recent examples of fast-paced space projects as well as a drive towards 'responsive space'. It seems it is not quite yet time to abandon all hope. We present what could be done and what is too close to call once thinking is shoved out of the box by a clear and present danger, to show where a little more preparedness or routine would come in handy – or become decisive. And if we fail, let's stand and stare safely and well instrumented anywhere on Earth together in the greatest adventure of science.
Small Spacecraft in Planetary Defence Related Applications–Capabilities, Constraints, Challenges
(2015)
In this paper we present an overview of the characteristics and peculiarities of small spacecraft missions related to planetary defence applications. We provide a brief overview of small spacecraft missions to small solar system bodies. On this background we present recent missions and selected projects and related studies at the German Aerospace Center, DLR, that contribute to planetary defence related activities. These range from Earth orbit technology demonstrators to active science missions in interplanetary space. We provide a summary of experience from recently flown missions with DLR participation as well as a number of studies. These include PHILAE, the lander recently arrived on comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko aboard ESA’s ROSETTA comet rendezvous mission, and the Mobile Asteroid Surface Scout, MASCOT, now underway to near-Earth asteroid (162173) 1999 JU3 aboard the Japanese sample-return probe HAYABUSA-2. We introduce the differences between the conventional methods employed in the design, integration and testing of large spacecraft and the new approaches developed by small spacecraft projects. We expect that the practical experience that can be gained from projects on extremely
compressed timelines or with high-intensity operation phases on a newly explored small solar system body can contribute significantly to the study, preparation and realization of future planetary defence related missions. One is AIDA (Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment), a joint effort of ESA,JHU/APL, NASA, OCA and DLR, combining JHU/APL’s DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) and ESA’s AIM (Asteroid Impact Monitor) spacecraft in a mission towards
near-Eath binary asteroid (65803) Didymos.
This paper describes the results and methods used during the 8th Global Trajectory Optimization Competition (GTOC) of the DLR team. Trajectory optimization is crucial for most of the space missions and usually can be formulated as a global optimization problem. A lot of research has been done to different type of mission problems. The most demanding ones are low thrust transfers with e.g. gravity assist sequences. In that case the optimal control problem is combined with an integer problem. In most of the GTOCs we apply a filtering of the problem based on domain knowledge.
The recently discovered first high velocity hyperbolic objects passing through the Solar System, 1I/'Oumuamua and 2I/Borisov, have raised the question about near term missions to Interstellar Objects. In situ spacecraft exploration of these objects will allow the direct determination of both their structure and their chemical and isotopic composition, enabling an entirely new way of studying small bodies from outside our solar system. In this paper, we map various Interstellar Object classes to mission types, demonstrating that missions to a range of Interstellar Object classes are feasible, using existing or near-term technology. We describe flyby, rendezvous and sample return missions to interstellar objects, showing various ways to explore these bodies characterizing their surface, dynamics, structure and composition. Interstellar objects likely formed very far from the solar system in both time and space; their direct exploration will constrain their formation and history, situating them within the dynamical and chemical evolution of the Galaxy. These mission types also provide the opportunity to explore solar system bodies and perform measurements in the far outer solar system.
The recently discovered first hyperbolic objects passing through the Solar System, 1I/’Oumuamua and 2I/Borisov, have raised the question about near term missions to Interstellar Objects. In situ spacecraft exploration of these objects will allow the direct determination of both their structure and their chemical and isotopic composition, enabling an entirely new way of studying small bodies from outside our solar system. In this paper, we map various Interstellar Object classes to mission types, demonstrating that missions to a range of Interstellar Object classes are feasible, using existing or near-term technology. We describe flyby, rendezvous and sample return missions to interstellar objects, showing various ways to explore these bodies characterizing their surface, dynamics, structure and composition. Their direct exploration will constrain their formation and history, situating them within the dynamical and chemical evolution of the Galaxy. These mission types also provide the opportunity to explore solar system bodies and perform measurements in the far outer solar system.
The search for life on Mars and in the Solar System - strategies, logistics and infrastructures
(2018)
The question "Are we alone in the Universe?" is perhaps the most fundamental one that affects mankind. How can we address the search for life in our Solar System? Mars, Enceladus and Europa are the focus of the search for life outside the terrestrial biosphere. While it is more likely to find remnants of life (fossils of extinct life) on Mars because of its past short time window of the surface habitability, it is probably more likely to find traces of extant life on the icy moons and ocean worlds of Jupiter and Saturn. Nevertheless, even on Mars there could still be a chance to find extant life in niches near to the surface or in just discovered subglacial lakes beneath the South Pole ice cap. Here, the different approaches for the detection of traces of life in the form of biosignatures including pre-biotic molecules will be presented. We will outline the required infrastructure for this enterprise and give examples of future mission concepts to investigate the presence of life on other planets and moons. Finally, we will provide suggestions on methods, techniques, operations and strategies for preparation and realization of future life detection missions.