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Quantifying and minimizing uncertainty is vital for simulating technically and economically successful geothermal reservoirs. To this end, we apply a stochastic modelling sequence, a Monte Carlo study, based on (i) creating an ensemble of possible realizations of a reservoir model, (ii) forward simulation of fluid flow and heat transport, and (iii) constraining post-processing using observed state variables. To generate the ensemble, we use the stochastic algorithm of Sequential Gaussian Simulation and test its potential fitting rock properties, such as thermal conductivity and permeability, of a synthetic reference model and—performing a corresponding forward simulation—state variables such as temperature. The ensemble yields probability distributions of rock properties and state variables at any location inside the reservoir. In addition, we perform a constraining post-processing in order to minimize the uncertainty of the obtained distributions by conditioning the ensemble to observed state variables, in this case temperature. This constraining post-processing works particularly well on systems dominated by fluid flow. The stochastic modelling sequence is applied to a large, steady-state 3-D heat flow model of a reservoir in The Hague, Netherlands. The spatial thermal conductivity distribution is simulated stochastically based on available logging data. Errors of bottom-hole temperatures provide thresholds for the constraining technique performed afterwards. This reduce the temperature uncertainty for the proposed target location significantly from 25 to 12 K (full distribution width) in a depth of 2300 m. Assuming a Gaussian shape of the temperature distribution, the standard deviation is 1.8 K. To allow a more comprehensive approach to quantify uncertainty, we also implement the stochastic simulation of boundary conditions and demonstrate this for the basal specific heat flow in the reservoir of The Hague. As expected, this results in a larger distribution width and hence, a larger, but more realistic uncertainty estimate. However, applying the constraining post-processing the uncertainty is again reduced to the level of the post-processing without stochastic boundary simulation. Thus, constraining post-processing is a suitable tool for reducing uncertainty estimates by observed state variables.
Objectives
Interest in cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) at 7 T is motivated by the expected increase in spatial and temporal resolution, but the method is technically challenging. We examined the feasibility of cardiac chamber quantification at 7 T.
Methods
A stack of short axes covering the left ventricle was obtained in nine healthy male volunteers. At 1.5 T, steady-state free precession (SSFP) and fast gradient echo (FGRE) cine imaging with 7 mm slice thickness (STH) were used. At 7 T, FGRE with 7 mm and 4 mm STH were applied. End-diastolic volume, end-systolic volume, ejection fraction and mass were calculated.
Results
All 7 T examinations provided excellent blood/myocardium contrast for all slice directions. No significant difference was found regarding ejection fraction and cardiac volumes between SSFP at 1.5 T and FGRE at 7 T, while volumes obtained from FGRE at 1.5 T were underestimated. Cardiac mass derived from FGRE at 1.5 and 7 T was larger than obtained from SSFP at 1.5 T. Agreement of volumes and mass between SSFP at 1.5 T and FGRE improved for FGRE at 7 T when combined with an STH reduction to 4 mm.
Conclusions
This pilot study demonstrates that cardiac chamber quantification at 7 T using FGRE is feasible and agrees closely with SSFP at 1.5 T.
Ein 34-jähriger männlicher Patient stellte sich zur Abklärung einer seit dem 9. Lebensjahr bestehenden und im letzten Jahr rasch progredienten Visusminderung beider Augen bei uns vor. Er beschrieb eine subjektiv zunehmende, im Spiegel für ihn selbst sichtbare, weißliche Trübung in der Pupille beidseits und eine starke Blendempfindlichkeit. Nebenbefundlich gab er rezidivierende Konjunktivitiden und morgens verklebte Lider an. Eine Allergie auf Gräserpollen und eine Unverträglichkeit auf Alkohol sowie mehrere Lebensmittel seien ebenfalls bekannt.
Zusätzlich leidet der Patient an stark ausgeprägtem atopischem Ekzem. Dieses wurde nie systemisch, sondern nur bei Bedarf mit kortisonhaltiger Salbe therapiert.