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Determinants of earnings forecast error, earnings forecast revision and earnings forecast accuracy
(2012)
Earnings forecasts are ubiquitous in today’s financial markets. They are essential indicators of future firm performance and a starting point for firm valuation. Extremely inaccurate and overoptimistic forecasts during the most recent financial crisis have raised serious doubts regarding the reliability of such forecasts. This thesis therefore investigates new determinants of forecast errors and accuracy. In addition, new determinants of forecast revisions are examined. More specifically, the thesis answers the following questions: 1) How do analyst incentives lead to forecast errors? 2) How do changes in analyst incentives lead to forecast revisions?, and 3) What factors drive differences in forecast accuracy?
Determination of the frictional coefficient of the implant-antler interface : experimental approach
(2012)
The similar bone structure of reindeer antler to human bone permits studying the osseointegration of dental implants in the jawbone. As the friction is one of the major factors that have a significant influence on the initial stability of immediately loaded dental implants, it is essential to define the frictional coefficient of the implant-antler interface. In this study, the kinetic frictional forces at the implant-antler interface were measured experimentally using an optomechanical setup and a stepping motor controller under different axial loads and sliding velocities. The corresponding mean values of the static and kinetic frictional coefficients were within the range of 0.5–0.7 and 0.3–0.5, respectively. An increase in the frictional forces with increasing applied axial loads was registered. The measurements showed an evidence of a decrease in the magnitude of the frictional coefficient with increasing sliding velocity. The results of this study provide a considerable assessment to clarify the suitable frictional coefficient to be used in the finite element contact analysis of antler specimens.
Chemical imaging systems allow the visualisation of the distribution of chemical species on the sensor surface. This work represents a new flexible approach to read out light-addressable potentiometric sensors (LAPS) with the help of a digital light processing (DLP) set-up. The DLP, known well for video projectors, consists of a mirror-array MEMS device, which allows fast and flexible generation of light patterns. With the help of these light patterns, the sensor surface of the LAPS device can be addressed. The DLP approach has several advantages compared to conventional LAPS set-ups, e.g., the spot size and the shape of the light pointer can be changed easily and no mechanical movement is necessary, which reduces the size of the set-up and increases the stability and speed of the measurement. In addition, the modulation frequency and intensity of the light beam are important parameters of the LAPS set-up. Within this work, the authors will discuss two different ways of light modulation by the DLP set-up, investigate the influence of different modulation frequencies and different light intensities as well as demonstrate the scanning capabilities of the new set-up by pH mapping on the sensor surface.
In industrial processes there is a variety of heavy metals (e.g., copper, zinc, cadmium, and lead) in use for wires, coatings, paints, alloys, batteries, etc. Since the application of these transition metals for industry is inevitable, it is a vital task to develop proper analytical techniques for their monitoring at low activity levels, especially because most of these elements are acutely toxic for biological organisms. The determination of ions in solution by means of a simple and inexpensive sensor array is, therefore, a promising task. In this work, a sensor array with heavy metal-sensitive chalcogenide glass membranes for the simultaneous detection of the four ions Ag⁺, Cu2⁺, Cd2⁺, and Pb2⁺ in solution is realized. The results of the physical characterization by means of microscopy, profilometry, Rutherford backscattering spectroscopy (RBS), and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) as well as the electrochemical characterization by means of potentiometric measurements are presented. Additionally, the possibility to expand the sensor array by polymeric sensor membranes is discussed.
Purpose: It was demonstrated previously that retinal pulse wave velocity (rPWV) as a measure of retinal arterial stiffness is increased in aged anamnestically healthy volunteers compared with young healthy subjects. Using novel methodology of rPWV assessment this finding was confirmed and investigated whether it might relate to the increased blood pressure usually accompanying the aging process, rather than to the aging itself.
Methods: A total of 12 young 25.5-year-old (24.0–28.8) [median(1st quartile–3rd quartile)] and 12 senior 68.5-year-old (63.8–71.8) anamnestically healthy volunteers; and 12 senior 63.0-year-old (60.8–65.0) validated healthy volunteers and 12 young 33.0-year-old (29.5–35.0) hypertensive patients were examined. Time-dependent alterations of vessel diameter were assessed by the Dynamic Vessel Analyzer in a retinal artery of each subject. The data were filtered and processed using mathematical signal analysis and rPWVs were calculated.
Results: rPWV amounted to 1200 (990-1470) RU (relative units)/s in the hypertensive group and to 1040 (700-2230) RU/s in anamnestically healthy seniors. These differed significantly from rPWVs in young healthy group (410 [280–500] RU/s) and in validated healthy seniors (400 [320–510] RU/s). rPWV associated with age and mean arterial pressure (MAP) in the pooled cohort excluded validated healthy seniors. In a regression model these associations remain when alternately adjusted for MAP and age. When including validated healthy seniors in the pooled cohort only association with MAP remains.
Conclusions: Both aging (with not excluded cardiovascular risk factors) and mild hypertension are associated with elevated rPWV. rPWV increases to a similar extent both in young mildly hypertensive subjects and in aged anamnestically healthy persons. Healthy aging is not associated with increased rPWV.
An increasing number of studies have reported on forest declines and vegetation shifts triggered by drought. In the Swiss Rhone valley (Valais), one of the driest inner-Alpine regions, the species composition in low elevation forests is changing: The sub-boreal Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) dominating the dry forests is showing high mortality rates. Concurrently the sub-Mediterranean pubescent oak (Quercus pubescens Willd.) has locally increased in abundance. However, it remains unclear whether this local change in species composition is part of a larger-scale vegetation shift. To study variability in mortality and regeneration in these dry forests we analysed data from the Swiss national forest inventory (NFI) on a regular grid between 1983 and 2003, and combined it with annual mortality data from a monitoring site. Pine mortality was found to be highest at low elevation (below 1000 m a.s.l.). Annual variation in pine mortality was correlated with a drought index computed for the summer months prior to observed tree death. A generalized linear mixed-effects model indicated for the NFI data increased pine mortality on dryer sites with high stand competition, particularly for small-diameter trees. Pine regeneration was low in comparison to its occurrence in the overstorey, whereas oak regeneration was comparably abundant. Although both species regenerated well at dry sites, pine regeneration was favoured at cooler sites at higher altitude and oak regeneration was more frequent at warmer sites, indicating a higher adaptation potential of oaks under future warming. Our results thus suggest that an extended shift in species composition is actually occurring in the pine forests in the Valais. The main driving factors are found to be climatic variability, particularly drought, and variability in stand structure and topography. Thus, pine forests at low elevations are developing into oak forests with unknown consequences for these ecosystems and their goods and services.
Die Detektion von Schadstoffen repräsentiert in der Umweltanalytik eine wichtige Aufgabenstellung. Gerade die Abwasser- bzw. Brauchwasseranalytik sowie die Prozesskontrolle haben einen hohen Stellenwert. Siliziumbasierte Dünnschichtsensoren bieten eine kostengünstige Möglichkeit, „online“-Messungen bzw. Vor-Ort-Messungen zeitnah durchzuführen. In dieser Arbeit wird ein potentiometrisches Sensorarray auf der Basis von Chalkogenidgläsern zur Detektion von Schwermetallen in wässrigen Medien vorgestellt.
Effectiveness of the edge-based smoothed finite element method applied to soft biological tissues
(2012)
Background
Minor changes in protein structure induced by small organic and inorganic molecules can result in significant metabolic effects. The effects can be even more profound if the molecular players are chemically active and present in the cell in considerable amounts. The aim of our study was to investigate effects of a nitric oxide donor (spermine NONOate), ATP and sodium/potassium environment on the dynamics of thermal unfolding of human hemoglobin (Hb). The effect of these molecules was examined by means of circular dichroism spectrometry (CD) in the temperature range between 25°C and 70°C. The alpha-helical content of buffered hemoglobin samples (0.1 mg/ml) was estimated via ellipticity change measurements at a heating rate of 1°C/min.
Results
Major results were:
1) spermine NONOate persistently decreased the hemoglobin unfolding temperature T u irrespectively of the Na + /K + environment,
2) ATP instead increased the unfolding temperature by 3°C in both sodium-based and potassium-based buffers and
3) mutual effects of ATP and NO were strongly influenced by particular buffer ionic compositions. Moreover, the presence of potassium facilitated a partial unfolding of alpha-helical structures even at room temperature.
Conclusion
The obtained data might shed more light on molecular mechanisms and biophysics involved in the regulation of protein activity by small solutes in the cell.
Enceladus explorer - A maneuverable subsurface probe for autonomous navigation through deep ice
(2012)
Energieeffizienz und Energiemanagement : ein Überblick heutiger Möglichkeiten und Notwendigkeiten
(2012)
Entwicklung eines Prototypen zur Prognose von Frühgeburten : ein biomedizintechnischer Ansatz
(2012)
In this paper we consider low Péclet number flow in bead packs. A series of relaxation exchange experiments has been conducted and evaluated by ILT analysis. In the resulting correlation maps, we observed a collapse of the signal and a translation towards smaller relaxation times with increasing flow rates, as well as a signal tilt with respect to the diagonal. In the discussion of the phenomena we present a mathematical theory for relaxation exchange experiments that considers both diffusive and advective transport. We perform simulations based on this theory and discuss them with respect to the conducted experiments.
Although Selective Laser Melting (SLM) process is an innovative manufacturing method, there are challenges such as inferior mechanical properties of fabricated objects. Regarding this, buckling deformation which is caused by thermal stress is one of the undesired mechanical properties which must be alleviated. As buckling deformation is more observable in hard to process materials, silver is selected to be studied theoretically and experimentally for this paper. Different scanning strategies are utilized and a Finite Element Method (FEM) is applied to calculate the temperature gradient in order to determine its effect on the buckling deformation of the objects from experiments.