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We introduce a new way to measure the forecast effort that analysts devote to their earnings forecasts by measuring the analyst's general effort for all covered firms. While the commonly applied effort measure is based on analyst behaviour for one firm, our measure considers analyst behaviour for all covered firms. Our general effort measure captures additional information about analyst effort and thus can identify accurate forecasts. We emphasise the importance of investigating analyst behaviour in a larger context and argue that analysts who generally devote substantial forecast effort are also likely to devote substantial effort to a specific firm, even if this effort might not be captured by a firm-specific measure. Empirical results reveal that analysts who devote higher general forecast effort issue more accurate forecasts. Additional investigations show that analysts' career prospects improve with higher general forecast effort. Our measure improves on existing methods as it has higher explanatory power regarding differences in forecast accuracy than the commonly applied effort measure. Additionally, it can address research questions that cannot be examined with a firm-specific measure. It provides a simple but comprehensive way to identify accurate analysts.
Modern industry and multi-discipline projects require highly trained individuals with resilient science and engineering back-grounds. Graduates must be able to agilely apply excellent theoretical knowledge in their subject matter as well as essential practical “hands-on” knowledge of diverse working processes to solve complex problems. To meet these demands, university education follows the concept of Constructive Alignment and thus increasingly adopts the teaching of necessary practical skills to the actual industry requirements and assessment routines. However, a systematic approach to coherently align these three central teaching demands is strangely absent from current university curricula. We demonstrate the feasibility of implementing practical assessments in a regular theory-based examination, thus defining the term “blended assessment”. We assessed a course for natural science and engineering students pursuing a career in biomedical engineering, and evaluated the benefit of blended assessment exams for students and lecturers. Our controlled study assessed the physiological background of electrocardiograms (ECGs), the practical measurement of ECG curves, and their interpretation of basic pathologic alterations. To study on long time effects, students have been assessed on the topic twice with a time lag of 6 months. Our findings suggest a significant improvement in student gain with respect to practical skills and theoretical knowledge. The results of the reassessments support these outcomes. From the lecturers ́ point of view, blended assessment complements practical training courses while keeping organizational effort manageable. We consider blended assessment a viable tool for providing an improved student gain, industry-ready education format that should be evaluated and established further to prepare university graduates optimally for their future careers.
Domain experts regularly teach novice students how to perform a task. This often requires them to adjust their behavior to the less knowledgeable audience and, hence, to behave in a more didactic manner. Eye movement modeling examples (EMMEs) are a contemporary educational tool for displaying experts’ (natural or didactic) problem-solving behavior as well as their eye movements to learners. While research on expert-novice communication mainly focused on experts’ changes in explicit, verbal communication behavior, it is as yet unclear whether and how exactly experts adjust their nonverbal behavior. This study first investigated whether and how experts change their eye movements and mouse clicks (that are displayed in EMMEs) when they perform a task naturally versus teach a task didactically. Programming experts and novices initially debugged short computer codes in a natural manner. We first characterized experts’ natural problem-solving behavior by contrasting it with that of novices. Then, we explored the changes in experts’ behavior when being subsequently instructed to model their task solution didactically. Experts became more similar to novices on measures associated with experts’ automatized processes (i.e., shorter fixation durations, fewer transitions between code and output per click on the run button when behaving didactically). This adaptation might make it easier for novices to follow or imitate the expert behavior. In contrast, experts became less similar to novices for measures associated with more strategic behavior (i.e., code reading linearity, clicks on run button) when behaving didactically.
How different diversity factors affect the perception of first-year requirements in higher education
(2021)
In the light of growing university entry rates, higher education institutions not only serve larger numbers of students, but also seek to meet first-year students’ ever more diverse needs. Yet to inform universities how to support the transition to higher education, research only offers limited insights. Current studies tend to either focus on the individual factors that affect student success or they highlight students’ social background and their educational biography in order to examine the achievement of selected, non-traditional groups of students. Both lines of research appear to lack integration and often fail to take organisational diversity into account, such as different types of higher education institutions or degree programmes. For a more comprehensive understanding of student diversity, the present study includes individual, social and organisational factors. To gain insights into their role for the transition to higher education, we examine how the different factors affect the students’ perception of the formal and informal requirements of the first year as more or less difficult to cope with. As the perceived requirements result from both the characteristics of the students and the institutional context, they allow to investigate transition at the interface of the micro and the meso level of higher education. Latent profile analyses revealed that there are no profiles with complex patterns of perception of the first-year requirements, but the identified groups rather differ in the overall level of perceived challenges. Moreover, SEM indicates that the differences in the perception largely depend on the individual factors self-efficacy and volition.
Hotelling’s T² tests in paired and independent survey samples are compared using the traditional asymptotic efficiency concepts of Hodges–Lehmann, Bahadur and Pitman, as well as through criteria based on the volumes of corresponding confidence regions. Conditions characterizing the superiority of a procedure are given in terms of population canonical correlation type coefficients. Statistical tests for checking these conditions are developed. Test statistics based on the eigenvalues of a symmetrized sample cross-covariance matrix are suggested, as well as test statistics based on sample canonical correlation type coefficients.
MultiChannel Photomultipliers (PM), like the R7600-00-M64 or R5900-00-M64 from Hamamatsu, are often chosen as photodetectors in high-resolution positron emission tomography (PET). A major problem of this PM is the nonuniform channel gain. In order to solve this problem, light attenuating masks were created. The aim of the masks is a homogenization of the output of all 64 channels using different hole sizes at the channel positions. The hole area, which is individually defined for the different channels, is inversely proportional to the channel gain. The measurements by inserting light attenuating masks improved a homogenization to a ratio of 1:1.2.
The established Hoeffding-Blum-Kiefer-Rosenblatt independence test statistic is investigated for partly not identically distributed data. Surprisingly, it turns out that the statistic has the well-known distribution-free limiting null distribution of the classical criterion under standard regularity conditions. An application is testing goodness-of-fit for the regression function in a non parametric random effects meta-regression model, where the consistency is obtained as well. Simulations investigate size and power of the approach for small and moderate sample sizes. A real data example based on clinical trials illustrates how the test can be used in applications.