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Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is a search technique that in the last decade emerged as a major breakthrough for Artificial Intelligence applications regarding board- and video-games. In 2016, AlphaGo, an MCTS-based software agent, outperformed the human world champion of the board game Go. This game was for long considered almost infeasible for machines, due to its immense search space and the need for a long-term strategy. Since this historical success, MCTS is considered as an effective new approach for many other scientific and technical problems. Interestingly, civil structural engineering, as a discipline, offers many tasks whose solution may benefit from intelligent search and in particular from adopting MCTS as a search tool. In this work, we show how MCTS can be adapted to search for suitable solutions of a structural engineering design problem. The problem consists of choosing the load-bearing elements in a reference reinforced concrete structure, so to achieve a set of specific dynamic characteristics. In the paper, we report the results obtained by applying both a plain and a hybrid version of single-agent MCTS. The hybrid approach consists of an integration of both MCTS and classic Genetic Algorithm (GA), the latter also serving as a term of comparison for the results. The study’s outcomes may open new perspectives for the adoption of MCTS as a design tool for civil engineers.
This paper considers a paired data framework and discusses the question of marginal homogeneity of bivariate high-dimensional or functional data. The related testing problem can be endowed into a more general setting for paired random variables taking values in a general Hilbert space. To address this problem, a Cramér–von-Mises type test statistic is applied and a bootstrap procedure is suggested to obtain critical values and finally a consistent test. The desired properties of a bootstrap test can be derived that are asymptotic exactness under the null hypothesis and consistency under alternatives. Simulations show the quality of the test in the finite sample case. A possible application is the comparison of two possibly dependent stock market returns based on functional data. The approach is demonstrated based on historical data for different stock market indices.
On the basis of independent and identically distributed bivariate random vectors, where the components are categorial and continuous variables, respectively, the related concomitants, also called induced order statistic, are considered. The main theoretical result is a functional central limit theorem for the empirical process of the concomitants in a triangular array setting. A natural application is hypothesis testing. An independence test and a two-sample test are investigated in detail. The fairly general setting enables limit results under local alternatives and bootstrap samples. For the comparison with existing tests from the literature simulation studies are conducted. The empirical results obtained confirm the theoretical findings.
On the basis of bivariate data, assumed to be observations of independent copies of a random vector (S,N), we consider testing the hypothesis that the distribution of (S,N) belongs to the parametric class of distributions that arise with the compound Poisson exponential model. Typically, this model is used in stochastic hydrology, with N as the number of raindays, and S as total rainfall amount during a certain time period, or in actuarial science, with N as the number of losses, and S as total loss expenditure during a certain time period. The compound Poisson exponential model is characterized in the way that a specific transform associated with the distribution of (S,N) satisfies a certain differential equation. Mimicking the function part of this equation by substituting the empirical counterparts of the transform we obtain an expression the weighted integral of the square of which is used as test statistic. We deal with two variants of the latter, one of which being invariant under scale transformations of the S-part by fixed positive constants. Critical values are obtained by using a parametric bootstrap procedure. The asymptotic behavior of the tests is discussed. A simulation study demonstrates the performance of the tests in the finite sample case. The procedure is applied to rainfall data and to an actuarial dataset. A multivariate extension is also discussed.
FEM shakedown analysis of structures under random strength with chance constrained programming
(2022)
Direct methods, comprising limit and shakedown analysis, are a branch of computational mechanics. They play a significant role in mechanical and civil engineering design. The concept of direct methods aims to determine the ultimate load carrying capacity of structures beyond the elastic range. In practical problems, the direct methods lead to nonlinear convex optimization problems with a large number of variables and constraints. If strength and loading are random quantities, the shakedown analysis can be formulated as stochastic programming problem. In this paper, a method called chance constrained programming is presented, which is an effective method of stochastic programming to solve shakedown analysis problems under random conditions of strength. In this study, the loading is deterministic, and the strength is a normally or lognormally distributed variable.
Purpose
In the determination of the measurement uncertainty, the GUM procedure requires the building of a measurement model that establishes a functional relationship between the measurand and all influencing quantities. Since the effort of modelling as well as quantifying the measurement uncertainties depend on the number of influencing quantities considered, the aim of this study is to determine relevant influencing quantities and to remove irrelevant ones from the dataset.
Design/methodology/approach
In this work, it was investigated whether the effort of modelling for the determination of measurement uncertainty can be reduced by the use of feature selection (FS) methods. For this purpose, 9 different FS methods were tested on 16 artificial test datasets, whose properties (number of data points, number of features, complexity, features with low influence and redundant features) were varied via a design of experiments.
Findings
Based on a success metric, the stability, universality and complexity of the method, two FS methods could be identified that reliably identify relevant and irrelevant influencing quantities for a measurement model.
Originality/value
For the first time, FS methods were applied to datasets with properties of classical measurement processes. The simulation-based results serve as a basis for further research in the field of FS for measurement models. The identified algorithms will be applied to real measurement processes in the future.
The European Union's aim to become climate neutral by 2050 necessitates ambitious efforts to reduce carbon emissions. Large reductions can be attained particularly in energy intensive sectors like iron and steel. In order to prevent the relocation of such industries outside the EU in the course of tightening environmental regulations, the establishment of a climate club jointly with other large emitters and alternatively the unilateral implementation of an international cross-border carbon tax mechanism are proposed. This article focuses on the latter option choosing the steel sector as an example. In particular, we investigate the financial conditions under which a European cross border mechanism is capable to protect hydrogen-based steel production routes employed in Europe against more polluting competition from abroad. By using a floor price model, we assess the competitiveness of different steel production routes in selected countries. We evaluate the climate friendliness of steel production on the basis of specific GHG emissions. In addition, we utilize an input-output price model. It enables us to assess impacts of rising cost of steel production on commodities using steel as intermediates. Our results raise concerns that a cross-border tax mechanism will not suffice to bring about competitiveness of hydrogen-based steel production in Europe because the cost tends to remain higher than the cost of steel production in e.g. China. Steel is a classic example for a good used mainly as intermediate for other products. Therefore, a cross-border tax mechanism for steel will increase the price of products produced in the EU that require steel as an input. This can in turn adversely affect competitiveness of these sectors. Hence, the effects of higher steel costs on European exports should be borne in mind and could require the cross-border adjustment mechanism to also subsidize exports.
Stützen und Träger aus Stahlprofilen können in Fundamente oder Wände aus Stahlbeton einbetoniert werden. Diese Anschlüsse wirken in der Regel wie Einspannungen, die eine ausreichende Einspanntiefe erfordern. Im Folgenden wird eine verallgemeinerte Berechnungsmethode für in Stahlbetonkonstruktionen eingespannte Stahlprofile aus gewalzten I-Profilen, geschweißten I-Profilen, runden Hohlprofilen, eckigen Hohlprofilen und einzelligen Kastenquerschnitten vorgestellt. Für Beanspruchungen infolge einachsiger Biegung um die starke und schwache Profilachse werden der profilabhängige Ansatz der Betondruckspannungen im Einspannbereich und die Ermittlung der Einspanntiefe behandelt. Unter Berücksichtigung der Normalkraft werden an den maßgebenden Stellen Tragfähigkeitsnachweise für die Stahlprofile geführt. Als Ergänzung zu den Berechnungsformeln werden Bemessungshilfen zur Verfügung gestellt, die die Wahl der mitwirkenden Breiten und der Einspanntiefen erleichtert.
In der Praxis bestehen vielfältige Einsatzbereiche für Verkehrsnachfragemodelle. Mit ihnen können Kenngrößen des Verkehrsangebots und der Verkehrsnachfrage für den heutigen Zustand wie auch für zukünftige Zustände bereitgestellt werden, um so die Grundlagen für verkehrsplanerische Entscheidungen zu liefern. Die neuen „Empfehlungen zum Einsatz von Verkehrsnachfragemodellen für den Personenverkehr“ (EVNM-PV) (FGSV 2022) veranschaulichen anhand von typischen Planungsaufgaben, welche differenzierten Anforderungen daraus für die Modellkonzeption und -erstellung resultieren. Vor dem Hintergrund der konkreten Aufgabenstellung sowie deren spezifischer planerischer Anforderungen bildet die abzuleitende Modellspezifikation die verabredete Grundlage zwischen Auftraggeber und Modellersteller für die konkrete inhaltliche, fachliche Ausgestaltung des Verkehrsmodells.
Die neu erschienenen „Empfehlungen zum Einsatz von Verkehrsnachfragemodellen für den Personenverkehr“ liefern erstmals als Empfehlungspapier der Forschungsgesellschaft für Straßen- und Verkehrswesen einen umfassenden Überblick zu den verschiedenen Aspekten der Modellierung und geben dem Fachplaner konkrete Hilfestellung für die Konzeption von Nachfragemodellen. Das Empfehlungspapier zielt unter anderem darauf ab, die Erwartungen und das Anspruchsniveau in Hinblick auf Sachgerechtigkeit der Modelle, die erzielbare Modellqualität und den Detaillierungsgrad der Modellaussagen zu harmonisieren.