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Market abstraction of energy markets and policies - application in an agent-based modeling toolbox
(2023)
In light of emerging challenges in energy systems, markets are prone to changing dynamics and market design. Simulation models are commonly used to understand the changing dynamics of future electricity markets. However, existing market models were often created with specific use cases in mind, which limits their flexibility and usability. This can impose challenges for using a single model to compare different market designs. This paper introduces a new method of defining market designs for energy market simulations. The proposed concept makes it easy to incorporate different market designs into electricity market models by using relevant parameters derived from analyzing existing simulation tools, morphological categorization and ontologies. These parameters are then used to derive a market abstraction and integrate it into an agent-based simulation framework, allowing for a unified analysis of diverse market designs. Furthermore, we showcase the usability of integrating new types of long-term contracts and over-the-counter trading. To validate this approach, two case studies are demonstrated: a pay-as-clear market and a pay-as-bid long-term market. These examples demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed framework.
In recent years, the development of large pretrained language models, such as BERT and GPT, significantly improved information extraction systems on various tasks, including relation classification. State-of-the-art systems are highly accurate on scientific benchmarks. A lack of explainability is currently a complicating factor in many real-world applications. Comprehensible systems are necessary to prevent biased, counterintuitive, or harmful decisions.
We introduce semantic extents, a concept to analyze decision patterns for the relation classification task. Semantic extents are the most influential parts of texts concerning classification decisions. Our definition allows similar procedures to determine semantic extents for humans and models. We provide an annotation tool and a software framework to determine semantic extents for humans and models conveniently and reproducibly. Comparing both reveals that models tend to learn shortcut patterns from data. These patterns are hard to detect with current interpretability methods, such as input reductions. Our approach can help detect and eliminate spurious decision patterns during model development. Semantic extents can increase the reliability and security of natural language processing systems. Semantic extents are an essential step in enabling applications in critical areas like healthcare or finance. Moreover, our work opens new research directions for developing methods to explain deep learning models.
Supervised machine learning and deep learning require a large amount of labeled data, which data scientists obtain in a manual, and time-consuming annotation process. To mitigate this challenge, Active Learning (AL) proposes promising data points to annotators they annotate next instead of a subsequent or random sample. This method is supposed to save annotation effort while maintaining model performance.
However, practitioners face many AL strategies for different tasks and need an empirical basis to choose between them. Surveys categorize AL strategies into taxonomies without performance indications. Presentations of novel AL strategies compare the performance to a small subset of strategies. Our contribution addresses the empirical basis by introducing a reproducible active learning evaluation (ALE) framework for the comparative evaluation of AL strategies in NLP.
The framework allows the implementation of AL strategies with low effort and a fair data-driven comparison through defining and tracking experiment parameters (e.g., initial dataset size, number of data points per query step, and the budget). ALE helps practitioners to make more informed decisions, and researchers can focus on developing new, effective AL strategies and deriving best practices for specific use cases. With best practices, practitioners can lower their annotation costs. We present a case study to illustrate how to use the framework.
Messenger apps like WhatsApp and Telegram are frequently used for everyday communication, but they can also be utilized as a platform for illegal activity. Telegram allows public groups with up to 200.000 participants. Criminals use these public groups for trading illegal commodities and services, which becomes a concern for law enforcement agencies, who manually monitor suspicious activity in these chat rooms. This research demonstrates how natural language processing (NLP) can assist in analyzing these chat rooms, providing an explorative overview of the domain and facilitating purposeful analyses of user behavior. We provide a publicly available corpus of annotated text messages with entities and relations from four self-proclaimed black market chat rooms. Our pipeline approach aggregates the extracted product attributes from user messages to profiles and uses these with their sold products as features for clustering. The extracted structured information is the foundation for further data exploration, such as identifying the top vendors or fine-granular price analyses. Our evaluation shows that pretrained word vectors perform better for unsupervised clustering than state-of-the-art transformer models, while the latter is still superior for sequence labeling.
The paper deals with the asymptotic behaviour of estimators, statistical tests and confidence intervals for L²-distances to uniformity based on the empirical distribution function, the integrated empirical distribution function and the integrated empirical survival function. Approximations of power functions, confidence intervals for the L²-distances and statistical neighbourhood-of-uniformity validation tests are obtained as main applications. The finite sample behaviour of the procedures is illustrated by a simulation study.
We discuss the testing problem of homogeneity of the marginal distributions of a continuous bivariate distribution based on a paired sample with possibly missing components (missing completely at random). Applying the well-known two-sample Crámer–von-Mises distance to the remaining data, we determine the limiting null distribution of our test statistic in this situation. It is seen that a new resampling approach is appropriate for the approximation of the unknown null distribution. We prove that the resulting test asymptotically reaches the significance level and is consistent. Properties of the test under local alternatives are pointed out as well. Simulations investigate the quality of the approximation and the power of the new approach in the finite sample case. As an illustration we apply the test to real data sets.
This paper considers a paired data framework and discusses the question of marginal homogeneity of bivariate high-dimensional or functional data. The related testing problem can be endowed into a more general setting for paired random variables taking values in a general Hilbert space. To address this problem, a Cramér–von-Mises type test statistic is applied and a bootstrap procedure is suggested to obtain critical values and finally a consistent test. The desired properties of a bootstrap test can be derived that are asymptotic exactness under the null hypothesis and consistency under alternatives. Simulations show the quality of the test in the finite sample case. A possible application is the comparison of two possibly dependent stock market returns based on functional data. The approach is demonstrated based on historical data for different stock market indices.
Schlafspindeln – Funktion, Detektion und Nutzung als Biomarker für die psychiatrische Diagnostik
(2022)
Hintergrund:
Die Schlafspindel ist ein Graphoelement des Elektroenzephalogramms
(EEG), das im Leicht- und Tiefschlaf beobachtet werden kann. Veränderungen der
Spindelaktivität wurden für verschiedene psychiatrische Erkrankungen beschrieben. Schlafspindeln zeigen aufgrund ihrer relativ konstanten Eigenschaften Potenzial als Biomarker in der psychiatrischen Diagnostik.
Methode:
Dieser Beitrag liefert einen Überblick über den Stand der Wissenschaft
zu Eigenschaften und Funktionen der Schlafspindeln sowie über beschriebene
Veränderungen der Spindelaktivität bei psychiatrischen Erkrankungen. Verschiedene methodische Ansätze und Ausblicke zur Spindeldetektion werden hinsichtlich deren Anwendungspotenzial in der psychiatrischen Diagnostik erläutert.
Ergebnisse und Schlussfolgerung:
Während Veränderungen der Spindelaktivität
bei psychiatrischen Erkrankungen beschrieben wurden, ist deren exaktes Potenzial für die psychiatrische Diagnostik noch nicht ausreichend erforscht. Diesbezüglicher Erkenntnisgewinn wird in der Forschung gegenwärtig durch ressourcenintensive und fehleranfällige Methoden zur manuellen oder automatisierten Spindeldetektion ausgebremst. Neuere Detektionsansätze, die auf Deep-Learning-Verfahren basieren, könnten die Schwierigkeiten bisheriger Detektionsmethoden überwinden und damit neue Möglichkeiten für die praktisch
Introduction
In regard of surgical training, the reproducible simulation of life-like proximal humerus fractures in human cadaveric specimens is desirable. The aim of the present study was to develop a technique that allows simulation of realistic proximal humerus fractures and to analyse the influence of rotator cuff preload on the generated lesions in regards of fracture configuration.
Materials and methods
Ten cadaveric specimens (6 left, 4 right) were fractured using a custom-made drop-test bench, in two groups. Five specimens were fractured without rotator cuff preload, while the other five were fractured with the tendons of the rotator cuff preloaded with 2 kg each. The humeral shaft and the shortened scapula were potted. The humerus was positioned at 90° of abduction and 10° of internal rotation to simulate a fall on the elevated arm. In two specimens of each group, the emergence of the fractures was documented with high-speed video imaging. Pre-fracture radiographs were taken to evaluate the deltoid-tuberosity index as a measure of bone density. Post-fracture X-rays and CT scans were performed to define the exact fracture configurations. Neer’s classification was used to analyse the fractures.
Results
In all ten cadaveric specimens life-like proximal humerus fractures were achieved. Two III-part and three IV-part fractures resulted in each group. The preloading of the rotator cuff muscles had no further influence on the fracture configuration. High-speed videos of the fracture simulation revealed identical fracture mechanisms for both groups. We observed a two-step fracture mechanism, with initial impaction of the head segment against the glenoid followed by fracturing of the head and the tuberosities and then with further impaction of the shaft against the acromion, which lead to separation of the tuberosities.
Conclusion
A high energetic axial impulse can reliably induce realistic proximal humerus fractures in cadaveric specimens. The preload of the rotator cuff muscles had no influence on initial fracture configuration. Therefore, fracture simulation in the proximal humerus is less elaborate. Using the presented technique, pre-fractured specimens are available for real-life surgical education.
Plant viruses are major contributors to crop losses and induce high economic costs worldwide. For reliable, on-site and early detection of plant viral diseases, portable biosensors are of great interest. In this study, a field-effect SiO2-gate electrolyte-insulator-semiconductor (EIS) sensor was utilized for the label-free electrostatic detection of tobacco mosaic virus (TMV) particles as a model plant pathogen. The capacitive EIS sensor has been characterized regarding its TMV sensitivity by means of constant-capacitance method. The EIS sensor was able to detect biotinylated TMV particles from a solution with a TMV concentration as low as 0.025 nM. A good correlation between the registered EIS sensor signal and the density of adsorbed TMV particles assessed from scanning electron microscopy images of the SiO2-gate chip surface was observed. Additionally, the isoelectric point of the biotinylated TMV particles was determined via zeta potential measurements and the influence of ionic strength of the measurement solution on the TMV-modified EIS sensor signal has been studied.