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This paper examines the positive and negative aspects of a range of interpretations of nearest-neighbours models. Measures-oriented and distributionoriented verification methods are applied to categorial, probabilistic and descriptive interpretations of nearest neighbours used operationally in avalanche forecasting in Scotland and Switzerland. The dependence of skill and accuracy measures on base rate is illustrated. The purpose of the forecast and the definition of events are important variables in determining the quality of the forecast. A discussion of the application of different interpretations in operational avalanche forecasting is presented.
The recently discovered first high velocity hyperbolic objects passing through the Solar System, 1I/'Oumuamua and 2I/Borisov, have raised the question about near term missions to Interstellar Objects. In situ spacecraft exploration of these objects will allow the direct determination of both their structure and their chemical and isotopic composition, enabling an entirely new way of studying small bodies from outside our solar system. In this paper, we map various Interstellar Object classes to mission types, demonstrating that missions to a range of Interstellar Object classes are feasible, using existing or near-term technology. We describe flyby, rendezvous and sample return missions to interstellar objects, showing various ways to explore these bodies characterizing their surface, dynamics, structure and composition. Interstellar objects likely formed very far from the solar system in both time and space; their direct exploration will constrain their formation and history, situating them within the dynamical and chemical evolution of the Galaxy. These mission types also provide the opportunity to explore solar system bodies and perform measurements in the far outer solar system.
The recently discovered first hyperbolic objects passing through the Solar System, 1I/’Oumuamua and 2I/Borisov, have raised the question about near term missions to Interstellar Objects. In situ spacecraft exploration of these objects will allow the direct determination of both their structure and their chemical and isotopic composition, enabling an entirely new way of studying small bodies from outside our solar system. In this paper, we map various Interstellar Object classes to mission types, demonstrating that missions to a range of Interstellar Object classes are feasible, using existing or near-term technology. We describe flyby, rendezvous and sample return missions to interstellar objects, showing various ways to explore these bodies characterizing their surface, dynamics, structure and composition. Their direct exploration will constrain their formation and history, situating them within the dynamical and chemical evolution of the Galaxy. These mission types also provide the opportunity to explore solar system bodies and perform measurements in the far outer solar system.
It is investigated whether a nonrotating lifting fan remaining uncovered during cruise flight, as opposed to being covered by a shutter system, can be realized with limited additional drag and loss of lift during cruise flight. A wind-tunnel study of a wing-embedded lifting fan has been conducted at the Side Wind Test Facility Göttingen of DLR, German Aerospace Center in Göttingen using force, pressure, and stereoscopic particle image velocimetry techniques. The study showed that a step on the lower side of the wing in front of the lifting fan duct increases the lift-to-drag ratio of the whole model by up to 25% for all positive angles of attack. Different sizes and inclinations of the step had limited influence on the surface pressure distribution. The data indicate that these parameters can be optimized to maximize the lift-to-drag ratio. A doubling of the curvature radius of the lifting fan duct inlet lip on the upper side of the wing affected the lift-to-drag ratio by less than 1%. The lifting fan duct inlet curvature can therefore be optimized to maximize the vertical fan thrust of the rotating lifting fan during hovering without affecting the cruise flight performance with a nonrotating fan.
To meet the challenges of manufacturing smart products, the manufacturing plants have been radically changed to become smart factories underpinned by industry 4.0 technologies. The transformation is assisted by employment of machine learning techniques that can deal with modeling both big or limited data. This manuscript reviews these concepts and present a case study that demonstrates the use of a novel intelligent hybrid algorithms for Industry 4.0 applications with limited data. In particular, an intelligent algorithm is proposed for robust data modeling of nonlinear systems based on input-output data. In our approach, a novel hybrid data-driven combining the Group-Method of Data-Handling and Singular-Value Decomposition is adapted to find an offline deterministic model combined with Pareto multi-objective optimization to overcome the overfitting issue. An Unscented-Kalman-Filter is also incorporated to update the coefficient of the deterministic model and increase its robustness against data uncertainties. The effectiveness of the proposed method is examined on a set of real industrial measurements.
To meet the challenges of manufacturing smart products, the manufacturing plants have been radically changed to become smart factories underpinned by industry 4.0 technologies. The transformation is assisted by employment of machine learning techniques that can deal with modeling both big or limited data. This manuscript reviews these concepts and present a case study that demonstrates the use of a novel intelligent hybrid algorithms for Industry 4.0 applications with limited data. In particular, an intelligent algorithm is proposed for robust data modeling of nonlinear systems based on input-output data. In our approach, a novel hybrid data-driven combining the Group-Method of Data-Handling and Singular-Value Decomposition is adapted to find an offline deterministic model combined with Pareto multi-objective optimization to overcome the overfitting issue. An Unscented-Kalman-Filter is also incorporated to update the coefficient of the deterministic model and increase its robustness against data uncertainties. The effectiveness of the proposed method is examined on a set of real industrial measurements.
Aircraft configurations with propellers have been drawing more attention in recent times, partly due to new propulsion concepts based on hydrogen fuel cells and electric motors. These configurations are prone to whirl flutter, which is an aeroelastic instability affecting airframes with elastically supported propellers. It commonly needs to be mitigated already during the design phase of such configurations, requiring, among other things, unsteady aerodynamic transfer functions for the propeller. However, no comprehensive assessment of unsteady propeller aerodynamics for aeroelastic analysis is available in the literature. This paper provides a detailed comparison of nine different low- to mid-fidelity aerodynamic methods, demonstrating their impact on linear, unsteady aerodynamics, as well as whirl flutter stability prediction. Quasi-steady and unsteady methods for blade lift with or without coupling to blade element momentum theory are evaluated and compared to mid-fidelity potential flow solvers (UPM and DUST) and classical, derivative-based methods. Time-domain identification of frequency-domain transfer functions for the unsteady propeller hub loads is used to compare the different methods. Predictions of the minimum required pylon stiffness for stability show good agreement among the mid-fidelity methods. The differences in the stability predictions for the low-fidelity methods are higher. Most methods studied yield a more unstable system than classical, derivative-based whirl flutter analysis, indicating that the use of more sophisticated aerodynamic modeling techniques might be required for accurate whirl flutter prediction.
The Saturnian moon Enceladus with its extensive water bodies underneath a thick ice sheet cover is a potential candidate for extraterrestrial life. Direct exploration of such extraterrestrial aquatic ecosystems requires advanced access and sampling technologies with a high level of autonomy. A new technological approach has been developed as part of the collaborative research project Enceladus Explorer (EnEx). The concept is based upon a minimally invasive melting probe called the IceMole. The force-regulated, heater-controlled IceMole is able to travel along a curved trajectory as well as upwards. Hence, it allows maneuvers which may be necessary for obstacle avoidance or target selection. Maneuverability, however, necessitates a sophisticated on-board navigation system capable of autonomous operations. The development of such a navigational system has been the focal part of the EnEx project. The original IceMole has been further developed to include relative positioning based on in-ice attitude determination, acoustic positioning, ultrasonic obstacle and target detection integrated through a high-level sensor fusion. This paper describes the EnEx technology and discusses implications for an actual extraterrestrial mission concept.
The predictive control of commercial vehicle energy management systems, such as vehicle thermal management or waste heat recovery (WHR) systems, are discussed on the basis of information sources from the field of environment recognition and in combination with the determination of the vehicle system condition.
In this article, a mathematical method for predicting the exhaust gas mass flow and the exhaust gas temperature is presented based on driving data of a heavy-duty vehicle. The prediction refers to the conditions of the exhaust gas at the inlet of the exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) cooler and at the outlet of the exhaust gas aftertreatment system (EAT). The heavy-duty vehicle was operated on the motorway to investigate the characteristic operational profile. In addition to the use of road gradient profile data, an evaluation of the continuously recorded distance signal, which represents the distance between the test vehicle and the road user ahead, is included in the prediction model. Using a Fourier analysis, the trajectory of the vehicle speed is determined for a defined prediction horizon.
To verify the method, a holistic simulation model consisting of several hierarchically structured submodels has been developed. A map-based submodel of a combustion engine is used to determine the EGR and EAT exhaust gas mass flows and exhaust gas temperature profiles. All simulation results are validated on the basis of the recorded vehicle and environmental data. Deviations from the predicted values are analyzed and discussed.
The eVTOL industry is a rapidly growing mass market expected to start in 2024. eVTOL compete, caused by their predicted missions, with ground-based transportation modes, including mainly passenger cars. Therefore, the automotive and classical aircraft design process is reviewed and compared to highlight advantages for eVTOL development. A special focus is on ergonomic comfort and safety. The need for further investigation of eVTOL’s crashworthiness is outlined by, first, specifying the relevance of passive safety via accident statistics and customer perception analysis; second, comparing the current state of regulation and certification; and third, discussing the advantages of integral safety and applying the automotive safety approach for eVTOL development. Integral safety links active and passive safety, while the automotive safety approach means implementing standardized mandatory full-vehicle crash tests for future eVTOL. Subsequently, possible crash impact conditions are analyzed, and three full-vehicle crash load cases are presented.
There is common agreement within the scientific community that in order to understand our local galactic environment it will be necessary to send a spacecraft into the region beyond the solar wind termination shock. Considering distances of 200 AU for a new mission, one needs a spacecraft traveling at a speed of close to 10 AU/yr in order to keep the mission duration in the range of less than 25 yrs, a transfer time postulated by European Space Agency (ESA). Two propulsion options for the mission have been proposed and discussed so far: the solar sail propulsion and the ballistic/radioisotope-electric propulsion (REP). As a further alternative, we here investigate a combination of solar-electric propulsion (SEP) and REP. The SEP stage consists of six 22-cms diameter RIT-22 ion thrusters working with a high specific impulse of 7377 s corresponding to a positive grid voltage of 5 kV. Solar power of 53 kW at begin of mission (BOM) is provided by a lightweight solar array.
We generalize our work on Carlitz prime power torsion extension to torsion extensions of Drinfeld modules of arbitrary rank. As in the Carlitz case, we give a description of these extensions in terms of evaluations of Anderson generating functions and their hyperderivatives at roots of unity. We also give a direct proof that the image of the Galois representation attached to the p-adic Tate module lies in the p-adic points of the motivic Galois group. This is a generalization of the corresponding result of Chang and Papanikolas for the t-adic case.
Using results from an 8 m2 instrumented force plate we describe field measurements of normal and shear stresses, and fluid pore pressure for a debris flow. The flow depth increased from 0.1 to 1 m within the first 12 s of flow front arrival, remained relatively constant until 100 s, and then gradually decreased to 0.5 m by 600 s. Normal and shear stresses and pore fluid pressure varied in-phase with the flow depth. Calculated bulk densities are ρb = 2000–2250 kg m−3 for the bulk flow and ρf = 1600–1750 kg m−3 for the fluid phase. The ratio of effective normal stress to shear stress yields a Coulomb basal friction angle of ϕ = 26° at the flow front. We did not find a strong correlation between the degree of agitation in the flow, estimated using the signal from a geophone on the force plate, and an assumed dynamic pore fluid pressure. Our data support the idea that excess pore-fluid pressures are long lived in debris flows and therefore contribute to their unusual mobility.
The aerodynamic performance of propellers strongly depends on their geometry and, consequently, on aeroelastic deformations. Knowledge of the extent of the impact is crucial for overall aircraft performance. An integrated simulation environment for steady aeroelastic propeller simulations is presented. The simulation environment is applied to determine the impact of elastic deformations on the aerodynamic propeller performance. The aerodynamic module includes a blade element momentum approach to calculate aerodynamic loads. The structural module is based on finite beam elements, according to Timoshenko theory, including moderate deflections. Several fixed-pitch propellers with thin-walled cross sections made of both isotropic and non-isotropic materials are investigated. The essential parameters are varied: diameter, disc loading, sweep, material, rotational, and flight velocity. The relative change of thrust between rigid and elastic blades quantifies the impact of propeller elasticity. Swept propellers of large diameters or low disc loadings can decrease the thrust significantly. High flight velocities and low material stiffness amplify this tendency. Performance calculations without consideration of propeller elasticity can lead to decreased efficiency. To avoid cost- and time-intense redesigns, propeller elasticity should be considered for swept planforms and low disc loadings.
Operational Modal Analysis (OMA) is a promising candidate for flutter testing and Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) of aircraft wings that are passively excited by wind loads. However, no studies have been published where OMA is tested in transonic flows, which is the dominant condition for large civil aircraft and is characterized by complex and unique aerodynamic phenomena. We use data from the HIRENASD large-scale wind tunnel experiment to automatically extract modal parameters from an ambiently excited wing operated in the transonic regime using two OMA methods: Stochastic Subspace Identification (SSI) and Frequency Domain Decomposition (FDD). The system response is evaluated based on accelerometer measurements. The excitation is investigated from surface pressure measurements. The forcing function is shown to be non-white, non-stationary and contaminated by narrow-banded transonic disturbances. All these properties violate fundamental OMA assumptions about the forcing function. Despite this, all physical modes in the investigated frequency range were successfully identified, and in addition transonic pressure waves were identified as physical modes as well. The SSI method showed superior identification capabilities for the investigated case. The investigation shows that complex transonic flows can interfere with OMA. This can make existing approaches for modal tracking unsuitable for their application to aircraft wings operated in the transonic flight regime. Approaches to separate the true physical modes from the transonic disturbances are discussed.
Wind-induced operational variability is one of the major challenges for structural health monitoring of slender engineering structures like aircraft wings or wind turbine blades. Damage sensitive features often show an even bigger sensitivity to operational variability. In this study a composite cantilever was subjected to multiple mass configurations, velocities and angles of attack in a controlled wind tunnel environment. A small-scale impact damage was introduced to the specimen and the structural response measurements were repeated. The proposed damage detection methodology is based on automated operational modal analysis. A novel baseline preparation procedure is described that reduces the amount of user interaction to the provision of a single consistency threshold. The procedure starts with an indeterminate number of operational modal analysis identifications from a large number of datasets and returns a complete baseline matrix of natural frequencies and damping ratios that is suitable for subsequent anomaly detection. Mahalanobis distance-based anomaly detection is then applied to successfully detect the damage under varying severities of operational variability and with various degrees of knowledge about the present operational conditions. The damage detection capabilities of the proposed methodology were found to be excellent under varying velocities and angles of attack. Damage detection was less successful under joint mass and wind variability but could be significantly improved through the provision of the currently encountered operational conditions.
In this paper we consider low Péclet number flow in bead packs. A series of relaxation exchange experiments has been conducted and evaluated by ILT analysis. In the resulting correlation maps, we observed a collapse of the signal and a translation towards smaller relaxation times with increasing flow rates, as well as a signal tilt with respect to the diagonal. In the discussion of the phenomena we present a mathematical theory for relaxation exchange experiments that considers both diffusive and advective transport. We perform simulations based on this theory and discuss them with respect to the conducted experiments.
Manufacturing process simulation (MPS) has become more and more important for aviation and the automobile industry. A highly competitive market requires the use of high performance metals and composite materials in combination with reduced manufacturing cost and time as well as a minimization of the time to market for a new product. However, the use of such materials is expensive and requires sophisticated manufacturing processes. An experience based process and tooling design followed by a lengthy trial-and-error optimization is just not contemporary anymore. Instead, a tooling design process aided by simulation is used more often. This paper provides an overview of the capabilities of MPS in the fields of sheet metal forming and prepreg autoclave manufacturing of composite parts summarizing the resulting benefits for tooling design and manufacturing engineering. The simulation technology is explained briefly in order to show several simplification and optimization techniques for developing industrialized simulation approaches. Small case studies provide examples of an efficient application on an industrial scale.